You know this, but I'm writing it again; I'm a football fan first and Aston Villa is my team. I'm getting that out of the way, because I'm reluctantly supporting Cardiff in the final of the League Cup. I am also reluctantly writing that I was happy that Liverpool went through last night.

It isn't that I dislike Manchester City any less than I dislike Liverpool - it is just so annoying that they've gone and bought success and we haven't. In the case of Liverpool - it is just fun to watch that once great club competing for the League Cup.

Alex McLeish demonstrated at the weekend that he has this uncanny ability to get his team up for the important matches. The epic battle that took place on Saturday showed us why he needs time and why, if we put our trust in him, it will come good.

And you could use the argument for Randy Lerner too especially when you look at our net spend on transfer since he took over - we're at over £10mn a season now and that type of investment doesn't come cheap.

How do I start? I'm not going to go into the we will always win one in four with this manager or that this a match we were always going to win, I'm going to go with the Robbie Keane angle.

You see, he stared for us today for the first time and he won us the game - there is nothing else to say about it. It wasn't the football or the tactics, it was Robbie Keane with two goals from outside the box.

I think we will win this, only because of our managers record of winning one out of every four games and because we have already drawn one of those, have Arsenal next and then a potentially scrappy game coming up against QPR, who will become draw specialists fairly soon.

But, as the title of this post suggests, it is only for bragging rights. Victory means he continues his one in four winning record, a draw or defeat means we will probably beat QPR. It isn't about form or anything else with this manager, it is about one in four.

I often pick titles to posts from whatever I'm listening to on Spotify and you might sometimes see a video or a reference in a post to something that I've just watched. I'm not doing it for any reason other than sometimes, I can see a link in what I'm reading or listening, to what is going on at Aston Villa.

See if you can see the link today - I'm sure someone will, but I have to hold my hands up - my music listening was very random.

I've thought about this post for a good few hours now and all that happens is I fall back on my sofa with little to write. The owner doesn't care. The CEO doesn't care and the manager doesn't care.

You can't blame the manager. He was offered more money to manage a bigger club in the Premier League. He isn't going to quit and throw away all that money. You can blame the owner and CEO, but again, they don't care, so what is the point.

It would be easy for me to write a post about the result and leave it at that, but I'm going to write something about the football instead and I'm going to break it down into three parts.

First, the first half and we were poor. The thing is, I'm not sure if was because Everton are that much better than us, we just didn't look up for it.

I don't know why I used the phrase statistical insight - most of you will know it is just me using predictive bias to suggest that Aston Villa will win, but it just sounded good and I'm going to use deep thinking techniques to demonstrate why we should win today.

The thing with, we should win and actually winning are so so close together. If you look at the table, Everton are only one point above us in 11th place, so the odds below will probably show we are just the favourites, but probably not my much.

I was going to post something today about the Robbie Keane signing or the Everton match at the weekend, instead, I'm posting an email that is getting sent out to all season ticket holders.

Yes, it is just another PR stunt from the club, but just because you are not a season ticket holder doesn't mean you shouldn't get to read it. It is below, have fun and tell me what you think about it below in the comments. If you want, you can try and take the muppet positives from it if you want - like, they are communicating. They're not. Massive difference between PR and communicating. He still has to go.

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