Written by Damian Sunday, 12 April 2009 10:27
The results yesterday, or should that be the Arsenal result yesterday, now means we have to win this game and I'll predict right now; if Martin O'Neill sends them out to play in a 4-4-2 formation, we won't win and we'll likely revert to a 4-3-3 in the second half and do exactly what we did against Spurs.
I'm sorry to be so straight to the point about it, it's just my opinion and based on Everton likely to be playing five in the middle or 4-4-1-1 with the 1 in front of the striker dropping back to help the midfield and act as a middle man for the striker and recent results when we have played 4-4-2.
Now, I want to be wrong, I really do. I want it to be a case of the team have finally gotten used to this out of date formation and they're bringing it back into fashion and that they're going to play it so well against Everton today, that you're going to see the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United start to play this way.
I just don't think it will happen and we were lucky against Manchester United because they played three up and gave us the extra man in midfield.
A while ago, I defended my position on James Milner and basically wrote that it could be taking him time to get used to 4-5-1, but for those of you that are regular here, you'll know that when it did come good for him, I also wrote that too. Well, you'll notice I've not written anything about him recently and that in itself should speak volumes for our most expensive player ever.
So, as and when we get some team news, we'll put it but if it's two up front I'll be all unhappy because I've got an Everton fan coming round for the football and then a BBQ and he is also hoping we play two up front.
So, until then, banter away. I'm actually quite nervous about this match, because it really is make or break and if Martin O'Neill decides to stick with 4-4-2, which even if he changes I think it might be too late, then it's broken.
Sorry to be so negative, I am just convinced it will happen. However, I'd love to be wrong this time and I'd love us to beat Everton today playing 4-4-2 but it's just not 1999 any more.
An Everton Video
Man of the Match
After the match, a poll will be going up featuring all the players that started and you'll get to vote on man of the match. This poll will run until some time tomorrow, basically about an hour after I get up out of bed and it will be used as the man of the match in the post-mortem.
Twitter Updates
Just because I have an Everton fan and actually a Liverpool fan round today, I'll be doing most of the updates during the match via the Aston Villa Blog Twitter page here. I'll also be coming on to the comments, but actual updates on the page might not be as many as they usually are.
Wild Speculation from the Sunday Papers
The News of the World, okay I've gone and done it now, are suggesting that if we don't finish in the top four this season, that Martin O'Neill has to have a clear out. The players mentioned on the list are Gareth Barry, because he is leaving and Nigel Reo-Coker, John Carew, Nicky Shorey, Marlon Harewood, Craig Gardner and Zat Knight.
We all accept that Barry is off this summer if we don't finish in the top four but of that other list, most will be unhappy about Carew getting a mention, so soon after O'Neill has sung his praise too and for me, the one I don't want to see leaving, is Craig Gardner. The others can go - but only if it means we bring in better. I must hold my hands up though and say I'd be unhappy if Reo-Coker left.
But, why is this rubbish? well, basically, the basis for the article is the wage bill is too high. The thing is, Lerner might be American, but he knows a thing or two about sports and the importance of paying for squad players. American football teams have position covered four deep and while that isn't something that happens in our game, it won't be a surprise to Lerner to find out that we actually need to strengthen this summer if we are to finish in the top four.
Martin O'Neill talks, we listen
Randy knows that to be up there is exceptionally hard work. We know what we've got to do, although I agree with him that this is not the time to be putting the club in financial jeopardy for a short-term gain. With a bit of luck, we'll be in Europe next season and we'll attract more quality to the club.Martin O'Neill, April 11th 2009
Team News
Taken from the BBC preview page so I'm not claiming any of it as 100% accurate until we actually see the team Martin O'Neill picks.Aston Villa striker Gabriel Agbonlahor is doubtful with a virus while forward Emile Heskey, skipper Martin Laursen and Wilfred Bouma are all still out. Defender Carlos Cuellar is suffering from a back problem so Zat Knight could earn a recall alongside Curtis Davies.
Aston Villa (from): Friedel, Guzan, L Young, Davies, Knight, Cuellar, Shorey, Milner, Barry, Sidwell, Petrov, A Young, Reo-Coker, Gardner, Carew, Agbonlahor, Delfouneso.
While I am a fan of 4-5-1 with the players we have, one of the most important players in that formation for me is Gabby Agbonlahor because of his pace and ability to terrorise defenders. It's not that Carew isn't a very good striker, his goal to game ratio tells us that he is, it's that he's not the fastest of players and I fear all we're going to see is long balls, if he is the lone striker in a 4-5-1.
My other fear is, even if we revert to 4-5-1, it might be too late in the season for us to hope that it's going to be just like it was when we were playing 4-5-1. Still, we'll find out in an about 30 minutes.
Actual Team News
Friedel; L Young, Knight, Davies, Shorey; Milner, Barry, Petrov, A Young; Agbonlahor, Carew. Subs: Sidwell, Salifou, Guzan, Gardner, Delfouneso, Reo-Coker, Albrighton.
Looks like 4-4-2. I don´t know what to say that isn´t above.
Everton Team News
Howard, Hibbert, Baines, Lescott, Jagielka, Cahill, Neville, Osman, Fellaini, Pienaar, Jo. Subs: Nash, Van Der Meyde, Castillo, Saha, Jacobsen, Rodwell, Gosling.
Can anyone tell me what the formation will be?
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brum in the south
said:
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... got to win this one today!! i think everton will hit us in the air, like united did dropping the ball on the edge of the 18 yard box, we have to get wise to this as brads timing was a bit bad last week! big games from carew cuellar and barry please!! |
kieron
said:
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... I'm hoping for five in midfield and Sidwell to be back in the side as the extra midfield player. Ashley Young is the key to this game, he badly needs a good performance! |
Damian
said:
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... ronvilla If we play 2 in midfield and Ashley Young has the same type of game he had at Goodison in the league, I'd be happy .. but you are right I think, five in the middle is key - if only to combat what they are going to do, but also so when we attack, we can attack in numbers and punish them |
James
said:
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... We need to win this game to stem the flow of negativity. We lose today and they'll be burning effigies of Randy and MON. |
kieron
said:
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... Well if Gabby is out a'm pretty sure his hand will be forced to play 5 in midfield. Anyway i'm off to the game, lets hope its a good one, this is make or break time. Up the Villa1 |
Abdul Kashif
said:
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... Heading out to Villa Park in a bit..come on Villa!! I just hope we play with confidence and O'Neill sticks with the same team as last week.. We'll need to battle hard in midfield today. |
Le Shava
said:
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... hi lads, Just wanted to pop in here quickly and say goodluck for your game against the Toffees. I reckon it will be 1-1 or 2-2, which will effectively write off 4th place for either side. |
john franey
said:
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... I can see this being a draw maybe a 2-2.Im begining to believe the conspiracy about the top 4 sides and the officials yesterdays arsenal game with wigan and gibbs not being sent off.Its gettin beyond a joke now.utv. |
James
said:
|
... "We were in the last 32 of the Uefa Cup. You get the strong impression it was the semi-final," he said. "A number of people who should know better seemed to think the Uefa Cup was there for the taking. My point is this: being in the last 32 is the equivalent of winning the third round of the FA Cup. Does that mean the FA Cup is there for the taking?" O'Neill (Off BBC Live Text) Interesting |
Michael panizza
said:
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... In my opinion, the only one that should have known better was him. Once again, if you know you've a small squad and will not be able to add in January why enter the Intertoto in the first place? Make up your mind, Martin. |
Damian
said:
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... Blue scouse has just arrived. Very happy that we are playing 4-4-2 but he reckons Everton might have one eye on the FA Cup ... lets hope they do. |
lachlan wilson
said:
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... Watching the game live in Australia. Up the Villa. I think tonight we really have to watch Timmy Cahill in the air. If we take it to them early we will be fine. We just need that little bit of luck to get us going. Last week we started out brilliantly against ManU but the back pass from Milner just deflated everthing. Cmon boys |
Paul Gough
said:
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... This match has to be the turning point I have got the match on my website http://www.coragh.com/tv Channel X2 is in english |
Eoin Greene
said:
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... Damian - you have been harping on about this 5 in the middle for months now. I believe you are wrong and that you put our limitations down to the formation as opposed to the players - who are MoN workers as opposed to being technically good (majority anyway). However, today is a good test of your formation philosophy - because Villa will play a flat 4 and everton a flat 5. Lets see if Everton have all the posession and dominate the game as they have this 'extra player in midfield' which you continually talk about. Two other things - You have twisted last weeks match to suit your own needs - United never had 3 up front and villa dminated with 4 in midfield. Secondly - John Carew is not slow - not in a million years! |
Damian
said:
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... eoin1981 Did you watch the match last week? If you did, you would have seen United playing with 3 players up front; one in the middle and two on either wing .. Secondly, Carew might not be slow, but he is not as fast as many of the defenders in the Premier League .. If you are watching the game now, you´ll see Everton are not letting much happen because of the five in midfield .. and while you have your right to believe I am wrong, look at the results. |
Damian
said:
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... eoin1981 By the way - Everton just scored because we were chasing shadows .. as in, they had an extra man. |
Anthony Laud
said:
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... have to agree with damian here-we are getting completely outrun in midfield. so far the whole game backs up his point! we look dreadful |
Mike Carter
said:
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... Everton are not winning because they have an extra man in midfield. Everton are winning because we are playing absolutely shockingly. |
Mike Carter
said:
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... Totally carving us apart. We have no urgency about us whatsoever, they want it more. |
Damian
said:
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... eoin1981 I´ll give you the second goal - that had nothing to do with formation. Just shit defending and getting pushed off the ball |
Mike Carter
said:
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... This is nothing to do with formation. It's becoming clearer as each week goes by that we were very lucky earlier in the season, winning games with fluke goals. 4-4-2 or 4-5-1, this team is simply not good enough. |
Mike Carter
said:
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... The game isn't over yet, it'll only take one goal from us to turn the momemtum in our favour. |
Anthony Laud
said:
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... honestly i have had it with oneil. he can get the best out of an average bunch of players in general but apart from that he is a terrible manager. he is tactically a decade behind the times, horrific in the transfer market and has made decisions and continues to do so that completely ruined our season! |
Damian
said:
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... vivavilla Sorry, you are wrong. Last week is a prime example. United played with 3 in the middle and we were great. Unfortunately the quality they have was just too much for us .. but look back at results and you´ll see, we were better and won more games with 5 in the middle! |
Damian
said:
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... Also - it´s not the players. Put us up against a team playing 4-4-2 and we will do well - it´s just that most teams now play five in the middle against us - we´ve been found out. But it is impossible to think that 4 can compete against 5 in midfield. |
Goldie 7
said:
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...The game isn't over yet, it'll only take one goal from us to turn the momemtum in our favour. lol |
Mike Carter
said:
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... Damian, I'm sorry but you are wrong. The stats mean nothing, we won most of those games due to fluke goals. We didn't actually outplay teams like West Ham, Hull or Portsmouth by any great margin, we got lucky. Sorry but it's just not as simple as "when we play 4-5-1 we're good and when we don't we're not". We played well against United last week because the players played well. They had a sense of urgency about them and linked up nicely. Not because we had an extra man. United did not play 4-3-3 for the entirity of the game anyway, a lot of the time the wingers dropped back meaning we were matched in midfield. Teams performances are down to the players. |
Anthony Laud
said:
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... damian you are right - we have been found out.we rode our luck without playing well earlier in the season. teams started to find us out by stopping young and our width, then we made it even easier for them by reverting to 4-4-2. 2-1 now you never know i guess. |
Damian
said:
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... We are getting back into this .. poor defending but it doesn´t matter. 2-1. John Carew .. more pressure and anything is possible! |
Damian
said:
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... vivavilla I respect your opinion but you can´t say the goals are fluke as a defense for a good result. The Pompey game, we also played 4 in the midfield, it was the first game for Heskey. Look at the results when we have played 5 in midfield and 4 in midfield; we won more with 5. It´s a fact and if (big if) we get fluke goals from playing 5 in midfield, then I don´t know about y ou, but I´ll take that every time. But I agree; team performances are down to the players, but if you have 5 players against 4, who do you think will do better? |
Mike Carter
said:
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... Damnian if that's the case why doesn't every team in the league play 5 in midfield? If your theory that 5 beats 4 every time it should be the preferred formation, but it isn't. 4-4-2 coincides with Heskey's arrival, something I would argue is a far greater impact on our results than our formation. He's been, in no uncertain terms, useless in my opinion. We may as well have been playing 10 players. Carew's arrival has changed things dramatically, we're playing better now without changing back to 4-5-1. I'm also pretty sure saying fluke goals is defending a good result. The fluke goals have stopped, and we're not winning anymore. Coinsidence? |
John Flynn
said:
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... The Ref is making not having a good game.. Lescott is having a lot of problems can not belive he hasnt been booked..! Hibbert is having a nightmare he could be off in the 2nd Half, we really have to stick to our task not sure what Gabby is doing though... take him off and bring on Coker..!! |
adam
said:
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... great game for the neutral but im pullin me bleedin hair out.UTV howards losing the plot.  |
Damian
said:
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... vivavilla it is the preferred formation for the top 4, or to be more precise, they call it 4-2-3-1 but read this for more info: http://www.thevillablog.co.uk/...lay-4-5-1/ it isn´t just me saying this |
lachlan wilson
said:
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... We seriously look like 7 year olds in that we boot the ball up field and hope for a knock down and something to happen. Everton are to good and big for that to happen more then once or twice. We need creativity and pace in the midfield. We need to buy Cahill and ship out Barry. He has been far to inconsistent this season. We must play 4 5 1. in th second. Sub Gabby for Sidwell and run all over them |
Eoin Greene
said:
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... Damo - 'if you have 5 players against 4, who do you think will do better?' - I have said this a few times now - but where does this logic stop? I mean why dont we have six in midfield against 5 - who do you think will do better then. I am not trying to say that 1 formation is necessarily better than another. In my opinion our limitations are not formations anyway, but players. We could say that Everton were in control for the first 25 minutes and villa were in control for the last 20 but in both instances in was 4 vs 5. Again - too much emphasis on formations. Its down to the way you play.....if you move the back four forward - you squeeze the midfield anyway. The same with strikers, if you play someone behind the front man is the midfield now a 5? Its the managers perogative to get a winning way of playing. My problem with MoN is the players we have considering the money he has spent. This summer is absolutely huge for him and the club! |
John Flynn
said:
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... Sidwell..?? You must be joking, we need coker on so Petrov and Barry can get up the field more... |
Damian
said:
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... eoin1981 The pitch is only so wide .. if you have 6 then you either have 3 defenders or no strikers .. there has to be some logic used and if the top 4 do it and we want to be top 4 .. it sort of makes sense that if they are doing it, we should Chelsea tried 4-4-2 for a bit this season with anelka and drogba .. but they soon stopped it and there is a reason for that |
lachlan wilson
said:
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... Throw on Sidwell at least he attacks the goal i cant remeember the last time Reo even took a shot. We need to score 2 goals to win. Reo hasnt had 2 shots all saeson! |
John Flynn
said:
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... Your missing the point we dont need coker to attack... Stan is getting bogged down in midfield, we need coker to play the holding role.. so petrov can move forward and support Barry we he makes his runs..!! |
Le Shava
said:
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... Reading the comments on here is always a bit of a laugh. Just listen to the types of players you lot want to throw on to get you a few goals. Steve Sidwell and Reo Coker, lol. Do you honestly believe you will put Champions League spot to good use with these sort of players? |
lachlan wilson
said:
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... I see your point lets hope we get the 2 goals. I couldnt care if Guzan came on and played up front as long as we win! UTV |
Mike Carter
said:
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... United and Arsenal both prefer 4-4-2 when everybody is available. Liverpool play 4-4-1-1. Only Chelsea play a true 5-man midfield, and that's only because they can't accomodate Anelka and Drogba in the same team. |
Damian
said:
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... Jaf okay ,, but we need goals today. all i´m saying is look at the results when sidwell did play sort of doesn´t matter now .. |
Mike Carter
said:
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... What the fuck is Brad Friedel playing at? He was terrible against United and he's decided to bolt his feet to the ground today. Not his fault for the shot but for god's sake man, if you think that was going wide you're delerious. |
George Templeton
said:
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... The roller coaster continues, oh what the hell come on 4-3! Come on Villa! A Delfuenso winner! |
Goldie 7
said:
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... we've gotta score 4 goals to win 3 points villa don't half make it difficult for themselves  |
Leroy
said:
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... Young has stepped it up a bit....just need to defend well and we could get something from this |
George Templeton
said:
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... 3-3! Oh lord I am not sure I can take much more of this! Come on Villa lets make it a real happy Easter! |
Leroy
said:
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... Great pressure leading up. Thats the key here, pressure. We keep it going and we could score a couple more, we look much more dangerous now.... |
George Templeton
said:
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... If the people that do the Review Show don't use this as their pick of the week then they need to be fired. |
Leroy
said:
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... This commentary is some of the most biased ive heard in a long time....absolutely shite, not objective at all, just all Everton. Ok, so a few things have gone our way in terms of calls etc, but keep the fucking standard.... |
lachlan wilson
said:
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... Lets make a sub and push forward we need to win a point does nothing for us |
Le Shava
said:
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... 3-3, good result that will be...well, for us anyway. I predicted a draw, but didn't expect this, what a game! |
George Templeton
said:
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... What a match, a credit to the Everton and the Villa, too bad it helps the Arse! |
adam
said:
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... good game great second half some shocking defending in the first half milner man of the match for me UTV |
Mike Carter
said:
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... What a game, much to discuss! Positives: Great spirit shown in the fightback. A near-dominant second half performance and we were a little unlucky not to nick it. Negatives: 4th is pretty much out of reach now in my opinion, it's a straight shootout for 5th. Poor defending for most of the match. |
lachlan wilson
said:
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... Good comeback from the boys should give us plenty of confidence against West Ham next week. |
vogra
said:
 |
... well i give them players credit, they showed more heart than i thought they had..hats off to them.....for once |
Dave
said:
 |
... good comeback,looked dead and buried after 30 mins,showed good attitude im my opinion.Everton are a a good side,the equal of us at the moment,which is improvement,compared to our position a while ago. 4th place has gone now,but hey it has still been a hell of a season. UTV |
lachlan wilson
said:
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... That game and the last 6 or 7 have really showed how much we miss Laursen. He seems to get everything at the back and he looks like he gives Brad a lot more confidence. 4th seems pretty hard now unless Arsenal really fall over. Very proud of the way the guys fought back after that terrible start. |
Phil
said:
 |
... Thought Milner, shorey and Luke young had a good game, i do wish Ash wouldnt go down to easily, its embarrasing sometimes, Gabby didnt do too much in the first half, Friedl didnt have a good game, Petrov played well, great cross in the last few mins, Just wish Laursen didnt get injured we dont have anyone to command the defence, i know 4th does sound out of reach but if arsenal lose to liverpool, chelsea and man utd, that'll be 9 points dropped, so who knows last game of the season we may be sending newcastle down and grabbing 4th, but it does mean winning our remainding games |
lachlan wilson
said:
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... I have been impressed with Shoreys last 2 games. He could have easily dropped his bundle with Freddie coming back but he has really shown some character. We look a lot better with Luke on the right. We really need some creativity n the middle. |
steveJ
said:
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... stop moaning! great comeback, i know we conceded shite goals but at least the players showed heart, proud to be villa - hope we can build on this and close the gap. lots of passion and great second half performance, proud of the boys! come on villa!!!! |
Nick
said:
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... Leroy, you should have heard the commentary for the Wigan Arsenal game. I thought I was watching Arsenal TV. |
brum in the south
said:
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... oh what a game!! totaly agree how much we miss mighty martin!! ash needs to stop falling over so much!! remember ronaldo doing that early on in his manure career? and what did he get? nothing!! ash has got to change his game,or move him inside? by the way milner a bargain at 12 million!! how he played today was brilliant |
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