I don't know why I used the phrase statistical insight - most of you will know it is just me using predictive bias to suggest that Aston Villa will win, but it just sounded good and I'm going to use deep thinking techniques to demonstrate why we should win today.
The thing with, we should win and actually winning are so so close together. If you look at the table, Everton are only one point above us in 11th place, so the odds below will probably show we are just the favourites, but probably not my much.
Which is why I'm going to need that deep thinking to convince you why we will win today.
Deep thinking explained
You see, it isn't about the opposition - it could be anyone today, but are chance is a little easier, because it is Everton and we are at home. Let me explain.
We have played 20 games this season and won five times. That is a win every four games and about what we will end up with this manager, maybe every 3.5 games or even, if we get super lucky, every three games, but we are in the ball park now.
So, if we look at our next four games, we have two at home and two away. Today is Everton and then we have QPR at home on February 1st. In between those two matches we play at Wolves and Arsenal.
Deep thinking says we will one for sure but that we have a chance at three, but then we have to look at the start of the season and how it went so horribly wrong then and then we fall back to what is likely and we don't like likely, because that is why bookmakers make so much money - what is likely in football doesn't always happen.
You see, Wolves will be tough and the very nature of the game suggests a draw. Arsenal is even tougher and I've written that off and I hope for a draw, so I turn my attention to today and QPR. If we go the next three games without winning, that would be taking this managers current win rate of one every four games to the wire and I don't think even he could manage that now, so I think today is a win, just so he gets a little breathing space.
Blarney like David O'Leary
See how my deep thinking works - yep, you got it, it's just hope and hope with blind optimism. We will win today because the wind is from the East.
But, in my little world, that is why I am having us as the banker bet of the day. You see, the odds will be good, much like they will be good for Everton too, but I had this dream that Robbie Keane comes off the bench with twenty-five to go (replacing Ireland) and scores the winner, kisses the badge and does his cartwheel.
Team news
Team news will come as and when I see it on Twitter or The Force, but I can tell you that Guzan makes way for Given and Keane does start on the bench. It's a bit harsh on Guzan, he's done so well and with aspirations of first team football on a regular basis it is a bit of a kick in the teeth, but Given is Given and he is pure quality.
As for Keane, I'm not so sure why he is starting on the bench, I'd be flogging him for two months because he was, possibly still is, the type of player that can create something from nothing, but sometimes, if you only get twenty-five minutes, that isn't enough time and I'd want him playing every minute so he learns as quickly as possible. But that's just me.
Odds
Video of the day: Going to spend my day like this
Bet of the day
Gambling isn't easy, so I'm going for something today that is fairly unpredictable. I'm having a tenner on us, Spurs, Sunderland and Fulham. A £10 bet will return £624 with Paddypower right now - click here to get these odds.