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Match prediction and competition: Birmingham City v Aston Villa

We've had a little look at the match, we've had a little banter about the match and we've also had Martin O'Neill doing a Brian Clough telling us it's about the players and not the formations. Martin O'Neill is great, but he's no Brian Clough.

Anyway, after all that, I'm going to have a prediction for tomorrow and we are also going to have a competition to win a t-shirt or two. I'm putting one up, but I'm also going to ask our friends at Soccerprint to see if they want to offer up any and if they do, it will just mean the next in line will win also.

First up, I'll do the prediction. I think we will win this, I just can't see Birmingham City beating us despite the fairly good start they've had to the season. If you look at their club, in all departments; players, manager, stadium, attitude and everything else, they're just not as big as us.

The only way I can see us losing this match is if we don't show up and we look like we are not that interested and with O'Neill as manager, I just can't see that happening and if you were to line up our players next to their players and the quality of players was determined by height; they'd all be shorter than our players.

So, I'm predicting three points, but I'm also going to stick my head out and say it will be 3-1 and at PaddyPower, you can get 17/1 for that. Seeing as I'm feeling fairly confident also, I'm going to predict that Gabby is a goal scorer and for that, you'll get 15/8, which I fancy is a very decent bet.

Competition Time

Right, like I've said, there is definitely one t-shirt up for grabs here. All you have to do is predict the minute of the first Aston Villa goal and the closest gets the t-shirt and then depending on how many are offered up by our very good friends at Soccerprint, they'll be more.

Aston Villa 5 Birmingham City 1 :: Curtis Davies will be watching

But, don not enter the competition below. Instead, click here (will open in a new tab/window for you to make it easy) and you'll be taken to the forum thread where you have to add your answer. If you are registered here and logged in, you'll be logged in at the forum too as it's on the same site now. If you are not registered you can't enter as you need to be logged in. So register!

Basically guess the minute our first goal goes in and you never know, you might be the winner of a t-shirt and yes, we will be running Twitter on match day and we will also have a live chat service here and there is a match thread up in the new forum.

Comments (118)add comment

bigkie1981 said:

0
...
First

I can see MON developing into Cloughie in a few years......

Villa to win sunday 3-0
UTV

Comment 1, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.04 am

Chiefy said:

Chiefy
...
Right then the day draws closer the tension builds. Sunday the second city Derby only oone other Derby has as much venon, meaning and pride at stake at thats in Scotland Celtic and Rangers, ironically the managers of both teams have experienced a bigger Derby than ours.

But to us this Derby is the highlight of the season as it gives us bragging rights, for blues fans suddenly they become the biggest team in the midlands and Villa fans the bragging lasts a day and we move on, as we have bigger fish to fry. This is the highlight of there season and all they can hope for is beating us as they know they will struggle to stay up.

Now on Sunday i think we will see some new heros born. I think Dunne is going to be strong and give a commanding performance at the back. I think Delph if he gets a game will perform and get on the score sheet. Big John, who is infact bigger than me and you, will get 1 or 2 but he will cement his place in Villa folk law with a vintage performance.

Blues will throw everything at us in the first 20mins, we will hit them on the break then they will be chasing the game and we will hit them on the break again and again leaving them frustrated as their frustration grows the cards will come out and i reckon they will have Carsley sent off.

All in all i cant see anything other than a Villa win, Blues look better after seeing them against the Spuds, but our quality is to much for them our speed will catch them. It will be close maybe 2-0 or 2-1 to the villa Carew and Delph or Carew and Dunne or Carew and Gabby for me.

Cant wait Come on you lions
Comment 2, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.17 am

The Burp said:

The Burp
...
Now on Sunday i think we will see some new heros born

Obviously a fan of cheesy melodrama eh chiefy
Comment 3, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.23 am

Chiefy said:

Chiefy
...
The Burp - I love it sorry just trying to dramatise it a little sorry
Comment 4, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.25 am

jonnie5 said:

jonnie5
...
I think the blues will be really nervous come sunday they will be looking not to let in an early goal and keep it tight. They will be looking to hit us on the break, so I feel we need to go with 4-5-1 so we are defensively solid. They know from the last game against us if they try to come out and play they will get beat. I also think blues will have a player sent off and we will get a penalty at sometime in the game. They will try to ruff us up and pay the price, we are by far the better team on paper.

COME ON VILLA

UTV
Comment 5, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.27 am

Tommy said:

0
...
As much as I like big JC, i dont think we will play him. My only worries are at full back as I dont think shorey and beye are derby material so hopefully we will see warnock. Therefore I would like to see us continue with 4-5-1 but replace shorey with warnock and also swap sidwell for gardner
Comment 6, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.32 am

The Burp said:

The Burp
...
Chiefy I like it... I think we will win this because we're better in every respect - better kit, better ground, better more intelligent fans, better manager, better players -

I bloody hate Blues
Comment 7, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.32 am

panchovilla said:

panchovilla
...
I don't mind what formation so long as we keep two midfielders controlling the centre of the park and protecting the back 4. So either 4.5.1 or 4.4.2 with one winger. When we play 4-4-2 with two wingers we look very vulnerable and even blues could win.
Comment 8, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.35 am

Chiefy said:

Chiefy
...
Normally i would say its down to the team that turns up on the day, but beacuse of the managers and their experience in Derbys and the players expereince in derbys i think both teams will be up for this game. If thats the case it will come down to tatics and quality.

MON tatics will be spot on and we have enough quality to play them of the park and not get dragged into the scruffy game they will try to play.

I hope their new owner is there he might decide after we beat them to turn St Andrews into a Wing Wah supercentre as it would be more entertaining
Comment 9, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.38 am

jonnie5 said:

jonnie5
...
I can feel the anticipation in my stomach already I just love the excitement this game generates there is nothing like it.

utv
Comment 10, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.46 am

keefvilla said:

keefvilla
...
If we play as we did against Liverpool then we will pick them off on the break and we could win at a canter. Blues 1 Villa 4.

Dunne og (sorry ak_27 only kidding)
Comment 11, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.47 am

jonnie5 said:

jonnie5
...
I just dont see us hitting them on the break they will sit back and try and hit us on the break. It is going to be a case of trying to break them down and nick a goal, the earlier the better. If we score early then we can hit them on the break cause they will have to step out and then we will destroy them come on the villa.

utv
Comment 12, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.52 am

vivavilla said:

vivavilla
...
Has anyone seen Futurama? The episode where the Professor creates The Finglonger? That's what Curtis Davies has got!
Comment 13, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.55 am

jonnie5 said:

jonnie5
...
Look at his hand man its bigger than his head smilies/grin.gif
Comment 14, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.57 am

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
If we play 451 i think we will win easily 3-0
if we play 442 then we will lose 2-1
On the Brian clough thing, Yeah he was good 20 years ago, times have changed, football has changed, and he would be a crap manager. There is a reason for change, becasue it makes things better. So those of you that think 'old skool' is the best, need to start living in a real world where we have Ipods not record players
Comment 15, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.01 am

frosty said:

frosty
...
Anyone elase got a horrid feeling about that Christian 'Chucho' Benitez coming good?

I've seen a few snippets when he has come on this season and he look really useful, far too good to be in a blue shirt, I just hope we have done our homework on him.
Comment 16, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.10 am

ak_27 said:

ak_27
...
Dunne og and then he gets 2 at the other end to make up for it. smilies/wink.gif
Comment 17, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.11 am

daveyboy said:

0
...
ron rabbit i have to say your talking nonsense im guessing your probably still at school the thing is great managers and players are great because they can play/manage in any era they will adapt alex ferguson is a prime exaple. And if you ask anyone who knows there football they will tell you that brian clough was "great"
Comment 18, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.12 am

Chiefy said:

Chiefy
...
ronrabbit - 4-4-2 and we will lose, love your faith and optimisim shocking !!! we will win what ever formation we play its about the players not the formation !!!! we need to be able to adapt throughout the game to match them, expose their weakness and soak their pressure up
Comment 19, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.15 am

daveyboy said:

0
...
hi damian any reason my last comment wasnt posted?
Comment 20, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.16 am

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
no we wont, if we play 442 we will not win, look at the facts since we changed from 451 we have won 2 games, against two of the worst teams imaginable. We were lucky to beat newcastle with a lucky deflection, we are crap when we play 442 and we played that formation all year we would down in the relegation fight with blues.
Comment 21, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.18 am

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
missed out an if in that post above
should be if we played that formation all year
Comment 22, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.18 am

Damian said:

Damian
...
daveyboy
if you register - you won't have to wait to get your comments approved. it's a way of protecting against spam
Comment 23, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.20 am

Chiefy said:

Chiefy
...
why do we get caught up on formations, like i said the best teams adapt throughout the game i dont think i have seen one team with a rigid formation throughout 90mins so i think whatever formation we play we will win, i cant see us playing 4-4-2, heskey is injured so he wont want to risk getting another injured gabby first half catch them on the break big john second half when its got scrappy.

But i try not to get caught up on formation cause like i said adapting throughout the game as the game goes on is they key thats why we have signed a number of players that can play in different positions to make us more fluid and adaptive
Comment 24, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.21 am

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
He was great then, not now. Times have changed, and they will continue to change. Fergurson is a great example, No he was a pioneer, he changed football and the way managers are, he was the first, or one of the first of the modern class/style of manager. Eventually someone new will come in and make his style obsolete, maybe that has already happened with pep guardiola?
Comment 25, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.27 am

Alan.B said:

Alan.B
...
Morning/evening all -- I have a funny feeling about this game, we have better players -yes, better manager - yes, and premier experience - yes, BUT we could so easly lose this one if the players just think that all they have to do is turn up ( remember Wigan ) - Just hope they turn up with there minds fully on the game = I'm nervious already and I'll take 1-0.
Comment 26, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.27 am

Damian said:

Damian
...
Chiefy
It's as much about attitude. If you play 442 then the two up front think they are strikers and don't need to track back as much. If you play 451 with Gabby on the right, he'll track back much more.
That I think is why people get caught up on formations - they are actually quite important.
Comment 27, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.29 am

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
We dont have good enough players to play a fluid formation. The only team taht really works for is Barca. What happened to chelsea last year when scolari had them playing fluid formations? Formations are important, of course they are, otherwise you wouldnt bother with one, you just put 11 players out there with the only tactical insight being, try and score more goals than the other team.
Comment 28, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.30 am

Chiefy said:

Chiefy
...
I understand that yes they are important but i would prefer a team of players that can change throughout the 90mins to a team of players that can only play in one way thats what i was trying to say, if we change throughout 90mins i.e milner and ash but we extend that to the formation i think we become more dangerous and less predictable
Comment 29, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.31 am

Chiefy said:

Chiefy
...
ronrabbit -- it works for Brazil, i do understand about formation cause i do, i to am not a big fan of 4-4-2 i dont think we have the players to play that formation strongly i do think 4-5-1 ( i prefer 4-3-3 makes us sound better and more exciting ) suits us alot better and suits our strengths and our players. So i am on the 4-5-1 wagon but i can see what oneil was saying that we should be adpative and fluid during the game it will make us more of a danger and less predictable.
Comment 30, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.36 am

vivavilla said:

vivavilla
...
Seriously, does no-one else see the similarties?


Curtis Davies


Professor Farnsworth
Comment 31, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.37 am

jonnie5 said:

jonnie5
...
vivavilla luv it m8 proper funny smilies/grin.gifsmilies/grin.gifsmilies/grin.gif
Comment 32, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.51 am

jonnie5 said:

jonnie5
...
it looks like a pepperroni should of done a speech bubble with "what the matter blues fans to spicy for you"
Comment 33, made on September 11, 2009 at 11.53 am

ak_27 said:

Comment 34, made on September 11, 2009 at 12.56 pm

keefvilla said:

keefvilla
...
vivavilla

You have way too much time on your hands!!

Formations only matter when the opposition have the ball. When we have the ball, Ashley Young doesn't stay wide left, Gabby moves along the front line and the midfielders get beyond the striker. The only difference between 4-3-3 and 4-5-1 is that the wingers are told to track back more when defending. Same as 4-4-2 and 4-4-1-1, the second forward to told to drop back into midfield when they don't have the ball.
The only tactics needed are, pass to someone in the same colour shirt and put the ball in the back of the net. People try to make this game so complicated.
Comment 35, made on September 11, 2009 at 1.00 pm

sazavfc said:

0
...
21st minute
Comment 36, made on September 11, 2009 at 1.18 pm

frosty said:

frosty
...
ak .. loving Dave Pundit ha ha! ( even though he predicts the draw )
Comment 37, made on September 11, 2009 at 1.24 pm

Up-The-Villa said:

0
...
Love it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERjhNO3N5es
Comment 38, made on September 11, 2009 at 1.49 pm

Juan Pablo Angel said:

Juan Pablo Angel
...
Vivavilla
lmfao.
Comment 39, made on September 11, 2009 at 1.57 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Keef,

Well said. Most teams at the top of the division are using two 'recognised' strikers in their formation. Gabby is simply not good enough to play as a lone striker. Torres has tried it for Liverpool and failed, so I'm sure Kuyt will be playing alongside him soon.

My preference would be for either Heskey or JC playing alongside, or in 1-1 formation with the Fonz or Gabby. We need midfield to blister forward when the big men get the 'flick on' or hold the ball up.
Comment 40, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.07 pm

Chiefy said:

Chiefy
...
Skysports seem to think our starting 11 will be

Carlos Dunne Collins Warnock

Milner Petrov Sidwell Young

Gabby and Big John

so they somehow think we are going into this as 4-4-2 let the complaining commence, we are doomed, we wont win etc etc

We will win even if we play 4-4-2 and do you know why ???

Cause we are better than them !!!
Comment 41, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.12 pm

Chiefy said:

Chiefy
...
Oh and Brad in goal of course
Comment 42, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.13 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
Mostyn G

Did you not see him against Fulham or Liverpool? He played exceptionally well and in those two matches we scored five goals.

I'm not saying he is the best striker in the league when playing 451 but show me a team that picked up more points than us last season during the time we played 451 and I'll show you a world class striker.

He does so much off the ball, creating space and running the channels that it often goes unnoticed - something I think you might have commented on about Heskey (maybe not you).

I know we've all got opinions on formations, players and positions but I for one would take a scrappy 1-0 win every single game of the season. Sure, I'd like to see us play much better football but at the end of the day its the results and the points that count and my point is, when playing 451 with Gabby - the results are much better and for whatever reason we agree or don't agree with it, it's just the way it is.

I think we have a real gem in Gabby and he is often not given the credit he deserves.

As for Torres failing at Liverpool as a lone striker; are you sure about that? For me, he is possibly the best in the league and makes that position in that formation his and the stats sort of back that up too; 41 goals in 61 games.
Comment 43, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.15 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Damian,

Liverpool pushed forward, thus creating spaces at the back for Gabby to exploit. Most teams will sit back and counter. Croatia even did this when Defoe came on, and he had little or no impact in the second half.

Gabby looks as though he may be improving, but I still have my reservations about his all round ability. We need him to connect better with his fellow strikers', that is, anticipate where the ball is going, rather than waiting for it to come to him.
Comment 44, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.27 pm

stig said:

0
...
7th minute.
Comment 45, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.32 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
Mostyn G

Okay, Liverpool pushed forward but what was to be expected at Anfield?

Look at it another way then; against Fulham he had to beat one man and he had 3 in front of him when he shot.

My point is, we win when Gabby is the lone striker more games than we lose or when we play with two strikers. Might be wrong, might be right, might be complete luck, but ask a gambler or anyone that is used to winning; if you find a way to win, they don't change it and they'll not question it either.
Comment 46, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.33 pm

Rich Clark said:

0
...
i predict the first goal within 10 minutes...ill stick my neck out and say 7 mins

overall score...i dont wanna predict, i dont normally get them right.
Comment 47, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.33 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Furthermore, we are still exponents of the 'long ball', which 9/10, Gabby will not get hold of, compare that to Heskey or JC and the stats are reversed. We need a big man to create holes in their defence, this is where Gabby should come in to his own.

Anyway, it looks as though MON has opted for 4-4-2 or 4-5-1-1. I believe this is a more effective formation for this game, however, we shall just have to wait for the result!
Comment 48, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.36 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
Mostyn G

In the matches against Fulham and Liverpool combined, we played less long balls than the whole match against Wigan. If anything, 442 forces long ball football from us whereas 451 promotes passing.
Comment 49, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.39 pm

ak_27 said:

ak_27
...
Mostyn G im with you on Gabby's ability to play that lone striker role when teams don't leave any space in behind like when they come to VP.

But this is based on last season so will give him a few more games to see if he has improved certain aspects of his game.
Comment 50, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.40 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
My point is, we win when Gabby is the lone striker more games than we lose or when we play with two strikers. Might be wrong, might be right, might be complete luck, but ask a gambler or anyone that is used to winning; if you find a way to win, they don't change it and they'll not question it either.

Most gamblers know that the Bookie wins in the end. Wishful thinking if you think we play a passing game with a lone striker. I don't take too much notice of the form we were in at the back of last season. The team were shattered and we were found out.

This new season has brought about some difficulties, but we have added some quality in numbers. Most of whom we have signed, will IMO play an active role as the season unfolds. The likes of Owen and Fowler were at their most prolific when playing alongside a recognised striker.
Comment 51, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.49 pm

DanWilson82 said:

DanWilson82
...
Damian, just noticed there is not link from the forum back to the blog unless i'm being blind. Yes I can press back i'm guessing you just forgot to change the forum link to blog smilies/grin.gif
Comment 52, made on September 11, 2009 at 2.56 pm

leight said:

leight
...
just realised what is causing curtis' persistant shoulder injury, its the weight of them ET fingers (pic above) smilies/cheesy.gifsmilies/cheesy.gifsmilies/cheesy.gifsmilies/cheesy.gif

scum 0 villa 3......
Comment 53, made on September 11, 2009 at 3.16 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
DanWilson82
Click on the home button in the menu smilies/wink.gif

Mostyn G
The bookie normally wins but fortunately this is football, but my point remains; why change a winning way?

It isn't wishful thinking about the passing game in 451 either, it's a fact.

Well, it's a fact if you think if we play long ball football we won't have as many passes and we will have more unsuccessful passes that is.

Against Wigan we made 228 passes and 72 of those failed.

Against Liverpool we made 261 and only 65 failed.

Against Fulham we made 375 and only 68 failed.
Comment 54, made on September 11, 2009 at 3.22 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Damian,

I'm not too sure what your stats are highlighting. We were poor against Wigan, attempted more passes against Liverpool and failed with nearly the same against Wigan and outplayed a much poorer team in Fulham.

This doesn't change my opinion that Gabby would benefit with another recognised striker playing alongside him. England scored 5 against Croatia playing 4-4-2 or 4-5-1-1. It suits our game. As I said, we'll see what line up MON chooses and look at the result Sunday pm.
Comment 55, made on September 11, 2009 at 3.36 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
Mostyn G

We played 451 against Liverpool and Fulham and 442 against Wigan.

The stats say we pass more when playing 451 and by your own admission, our football was worse when playing 442.

Common sense also tells us that if you play long ball football you will make more unsuccessful passes - these stats just go to show that we do pass more when playing 451 and keep the ball better - something you disagreed with further up, or actually called wishful thinking.

As for Gabby benefiting with another recognised striker - maybe he would but the stats show we don't win as many games when we play 442 and that we revert to long ball football. What would you rather; long ball football and more losses or 451 and more wins?

Gabby will grow into the lone striker position much easier now than if he was asked to when he was 27 or 28 and it takes continuity to develop. Nobody can say he wasn't much better last season when we played 451 and that is likely because he was given time to get used to it.

Give him more time doing it and he will get better.
Comment 56, made on September 11, 2009 at 3.42 pm

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
How anyone can say we are better playing 442 is a complete joke. Look at the stats, we win when we play 451, we lose when we play 442. In the whole of 2009 we have won 4 premier league games. 2 playing 442 and 2 playing 451. we have started 2 games playing 451 and the rest playing 442. This is not rocket science, its not difficult to work out. We win playing 451, we got to third in the league playing 451, its bloody obvious, we need to play 451.
Gabby as a lone striker is in a word fantastic, he got in the englad squad and his first cap when he was a lone striker, he scored all his goals last season as a lone striker. When he plays as part of a pairing up fron he is crap.
I cant think of a single reason why we would play 442 over 451. Its an old fashioned, out dated formation that doesnt work anymore.
Even Man utd can make it work, look at there record last year when they started with two recognised strikers, berbatov, rooney, tevez. There record was rubbish, but when they start with 5 midfilders, ronaldo pushing on (attacking mid) there record was sublime.
In all honesty if MON cant see that we need to play 451 then he shouldnt be a manager.
i stand by what i said, if we play 442 we will lose, if we play 451 we will win, and we will win comfortably.
I hope we play 451
Comment 57, made on September 11, 2009 at 3.51 pm

Rowley Villain said:

Rowley Villain
...
I undersatnd the views on the formation thing. The stats are there to be manipulated.

However, I think that if we can't play 4-4-2 or Agbonlahor can't play with a partner, then how can we, or Agbonlahor, be anything other than distinctly average?
Comment 58, made on September 11, 2009 at 3.58 pm

DanWilson82 said:

DanWilson82
...
Why do sky sports think Cuellar is going to start at right back. We have a right back, and cover for him now, I thought the days of players playing out of position was over? If mon goes with Cuellar at RB what was the point in paying money for Beye? And why take Carlos out of his natural position where he is steadily becoming rock solid. I really hope those muppets at sky just made that up randomly?!
Comment 59, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.07 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Damian,

We beat Rapid playing 442. I think Gabby scored most of his goals during the early part of the season when teams were pushing forward. His goal tally dried up when defences sat back.

The top clubs and England are currently operating with two recognised strikers, call the formation what you like. IMO Gabby played better alongside Carew. 3 of his 12 goals came against Citeh at the start of the season. After the Newcastle match, he didn't score until the 5th April against Man.U. What diminuitive pacey striker wouldn't profit from the services of JC or Heskey?

Comment 60, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.09 pm

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
i think the only defensive change will be dunne in for clarke. MON doesnt like to change around the team, and the defence was starting to look solid agaist liverpoo and fulham. I think Beye, Cuellar and Shorey all deserve to keep there places.
MON must have learnt his lesson by now, he wont play players out of position any more, it doesnt work, i will be happy with what ever defence as long as we have an LB 2CB's and RB all playing in their correct positions.
Comment 61, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.15 pm

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
And Rowley the stats arnt being manipulated, what ever you do with the numbers 451 will come out better.
Unless we say:
excluding all premeir league games except for newcastle and portsmouth Aston Villa won 100% of their premeir league games playing 442 in 2009
Comment 62, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.17 pm

Chater1703 said:

Chater1703
...
tbf with all this formation talk yes 4-5-1 is better but didnt we lose to rapid vienna away using this formation yet win at home using 4-4-2 lol just to stir things up smilies/smiley.gif
Comment 63, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.18 pm

Juan Pablo Angel said:

Juan Pablo Angel
...
Danwilson,
It's just Sky being dopey mate. They didn't even know we had a youngster called James Collins and just assumed we'd named our new signing in our reserve team before he'd even had a medical. hahaha.

I would be very suprised if Beye didn't start at right back and I don't think Collins will start tbh. Cuellar and Dunne for me, Carlos has been playing too well to be axed at the drop of a hat.

Sky are probably just assuming that because Collins is a new signing he has to play. Never mind that Cuellar cost us two million more and has been involved in every game this year.
Comment 64, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.20 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Damian,

Gabby scored 13 goals in 48 appearances last season. Is he really going to score 20+ this season as a lone striker? I hope I'm wrong or MON gives him one of the big boys to play alongside him.
Comment 65, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.21 pm

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
But against vienna we were killing them playing 451, all over them and we looked like scoring, then in MON's wisdom we went to 442 and were crap and never looked like scoring.
We also played gardner as a cm and he is at best a championship player, so really the formation was 441.
Comment 66, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.30 pm

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
And Hesky as a lone striker? Id like to now how many teams have scored a goal with hesky as a lone striker, i reckon it would be 0
Comment 67, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.31 pm

qashqai said:

qashqai
...
This is going to be a really tough game imo.I just hope we start with Gabby as the lone striker with Carew on the bench.We played our best football last season playing this way so please dont change it MON. 451 when defending,then 433 on the break is how I like it.Just watched Tony Morley talking on the ESPN classic channel about the 80/81 season,what a great 60 minute programme. He tells of how Ron Saunders would wind him up before the game.One great comment from the manager was that if a stiker had 4 chances he would expect at least 2 goals or he was out.Emile are you listening!
Comment 68, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.35 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
ronrabbit,

Heskey prefers to play with prolific strikers, but is capable of playing as a lone striker as he is better than Gabby and JC at holding the ball and bringing attacking midfielders in to play.
Comment 69, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.37 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
Mostyn G

Yes, we beat Rapid Vienna playing 442 - but come on - that is like saying we beat Middlesbrough playing 442 - a good side but still would struggle in the Premier League. they also knew they only had to come and score one and they did that and played their game in that manner.

Remember though; it is a team game. I'd rather play Gabby all by himself and he scores 5 goals a season but we win more games because he allows other people into the game more.

But to answer your question; maybe. I can't see into the future, but if he were to play up front all by himself, then maybe yes he would get 20+ gaols a season.
Comment 70, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.44 pm

frosty said:

frosty
...
I think the success comes from changing to 433 when we go on the attack, on a good day we play more in a 433 formation than a 451.

I would like to see us line up against the weaker teams in a 433 from the start, it would scare the hell out of me if I had Young, Milner, Gabby, Big John, & DJ when fit running at me every chance they got. We would concede a lot more but thats why you pay the money for centre backs.

Comment 71, made on September 11, 2009 at 4.50 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Damian,

How many goals did Gabby score last season when playing as a lone striker? - My guess, not as many as when playing with JC. We can't have everyone bringing others in to play. We need a prolific goalscorer, and unless there is a marked improvement with Gabby, I can't see this happening, which is why I feel we are better playing with two in whatever formation.
Comment 72, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.00 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
Mostyn G

What are win in this for; winning games or scoring goals?

Sure, you score more goals than your opposition and you will win and chances are if you play with 5 strikers you've got more chance of scoring, but again, with 5 strikers, you'll let in more.

It is about winning games, not how many goals a particular player scores.

We win more games than we lose playing 451. We pass more. We make less mistakes and statistically, as a team, we score more.

What more do you want?
Comment 73, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.03 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Damian,

A team as good as any of the top 4/5 who operate successfully with two recognised strikers. I will wait with baited breath on Sunday as to the formation. I think the dead horse has been sufficiently flogged.
Comment 74, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.07 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Damian,

England played 442 against Croatia and were awesome in attack and defence, save for Johnson (whose defensive skills are questionable). If it's good enough for the national team; why not us?
Comment 75, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.17 pm

Altan said:

Altan
...
3-1 to the Villa

First goal 4th minute .

Damian who won the net spend competition from earlyer this summer ?
Comment 76, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.18 pm

Van Dutch said:

Van Dutch
...
I'm not too optimistic about this game, but I think it pays to be slightly pessimistic as a football fan. Then you can never be disappointed! Still, a 2-0 would be great. I'm off to the pub with my friend who used to be a Blue Nose, but fortunately she saw the light and doesn't follow them anymore.

By the way, anyone seen the 1st team photo? It looks like we have a huge squad!!
Comment 77, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.25 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
Mostyn G

First; I'm not interested about England or watching Wayne Rooney drop back so much (I'm stating something there) - also, international football is different to league football, but you make a bold statement about the top 4/5 operating with two strikers because they all don't.

Did you watch Arsenal v Man Utd recently? Neiither of those teams started with two recognised strikers playing upfront, it was very much a variation of five in midfield.

As for Liverpool; only Torres up front at the moment.

I cant talk for Everton or Chelsea .. but it sort of quashes your suggestion .. again.
Comment 78, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.27 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Damian,

You should read the Liverpool blog. Most fans are not happy playing Torres up front on his own. He profits better with Kuyt supporting. Chelsea are playing with Drogba/Anelka, Spuds are playing Defoe/Keane effectively, Adebeyor and co.... These are recognised strikers, call it whatever formation you like.
Comment 79, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.32 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
Damian,

By the way, didn't Man.U get beaten by Burnley recently? Kind of quashes your suggestion...again. Please don't patronise, it's rather silly!

I don't like Gabby playing up front on his own, because (i) I don't think he's good enough; yet and (ii) I think he will fair better alongside JC or Heskey. Wait to see what the manager decides.
Comment 80, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.37 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
Mostyn G

I dont need to read a blog to see how Liverpool play and how they finished 2nd in the league last season. I for one think Kuyt does a fantastic job on the right and while we are all allowed opinions, I don't think there is a better player in the country that Steven Gerrard to support Torres and I think he has done a fantastic job so far ..

Liverpool will not revert back to 442 under Benitez because well, he knows that it would be suicide.

As for Keane and Defoe - come on, have you seen Spurs play with those two in the same team? Keane is more an attacking midfielder than a striker. It doesn't matter what a player is tagged as in terms of position - it is where they play that counts.

Just because Gabby is a striker - do you think we were playing 442 against Fulham when Carew came on? We didn't and it isn't about 'what position they prefer to play in' it is about the position they actually play.

As for Man Utd losing to Burnley as quashing my suggestion, are you mad? If you can't see that as exactly what it is, then you don't know football and I'm not trying to be patronising, but every single season there has been a football league, you've had results like that.

As for not liking Gabby up front by himself .. I don't care, I've answered that three times above.
Comment 81, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.38 pm

MartinOneillatemyhamster said:

MartinOneillatemyhamster
...
My old man, said be a city fan
And i said bollocks your a c**t!
We hate the blues and we're gonna show it!
We hate the blues and we f**king know it!
With Young, Gabby and Carew
Blues who the f**king hell are you

Forget top four, europe, Fa cup, carling cup, beating the scum is more important
Comment 82, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.41 pm

MartinOneillatemyhamster said:

MartinOneillatemyhamster
...
I am partial to Karen brady thoughsmilies/wink.gif
Comment 83, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.46 pm

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
How can people defend playing 442, its an old out dated formation, it doesnt work in the premeier league, or the champions league.
The teams that 'make it work; are not playing two strikers, one always drops back to be an attacking midfielder, keane for tottenham, was ronaldo for man u, gerrard for liverpool.
chelsea play with two forwards but anelka plays on the wing.
Everton play cahil as attackin mid as well. The modern way is to have 5 mids, two defensive and 3 attacking, our forwards, gabby. hesky, carew, cant play as an attacking cm, so we cant play 442.
If we play 442 on sunday we will lose, because blues are better than the only teams we have beat playing 442 this year.
If we play 451 we will win, and we will win well.
Comment 84, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.56 pm

The French Connection said:

The French Connection
...
If we play 4-4-2 with Young and Milner hugging the line we will get steamrollered, simply because the midfield two, whoever they are, will not be able to cover sufficient areas of the pitch.
Comment 85, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.56 pm

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
And the burnley, man u match? Man u were playing 442, rooney and owen up top.
Its a crap outdated formation that doesnt work.
Comment 86, made on September 11, 2009 at 5.59 pm

kohoutek said:

kohoutek
...
I agree with you Keefvilla...Whatever you call it, it's players knowing where to be and what it required to win. The only exception is if they're being given very strict instructions that keep them from doing what's needed, like tracking back, etc.

For what it's worth, Gabby has to be the lone striker. I don't mind if we play a "442" where the second striker is basically playing as an attacking mid, a la 4-4-1-1.

But if there's one spearhead, Gabby is the quickest, most dangerous of the lot. He scares defenses, pulls them back around him, and does open up space in front of the back four. We just have to get up and fill it, give him an option, like in basketball, for the point guard to penetrate, suck in the defense, then kick it back out to open players if he can't get his own shot off.

Carew just isn't fast enough, agile enough, or interested enough to be lone forward, imo. He'll score goals around the box, but he doesn't cause as many problems as Gabby does as far the opponent keeping its shape.
Comment 87, made on September 11, 2009 at 6.01 pm

kohoutek said:

kohoutek
...
And indeed, Damo is right in that the "451" is leading us to pass more, build up more, keep our shape better, and protect the back.

I think we can score on Blues in a 451. And Sidwell has been coming on, getting much more involved. I'll take him over Gardner, please.
Comment 88, made on September 11, 2009 at 6.03 pm

Juan Pablo Angel said:

Juan Pablo Angel
...
But against vienna we were killing them playing 451, all over them and we looked like scoring, then in MON's wisdom we went to 442 and were crap and never looked like scoring.
We also played gardner as a cm and he is at best a championship player, so really the formation was 441.


Ron,

We switched to 4-4-2 because we were a goal down after like 20 seconds and we had plenty of the ball because they sat back and looked like they'd just hang on. 4-4-2 gives us more of a chance of opening them up and we came close but didn't. For the same reason we played 4-4-2 at home and very nearly went through.

Gardner is a better player than you give him credit for. He would walk into quite a few prem teams, but I do think we have better available. He is one who needs to kick on this year.

If you play Heskey alon, then you get him to hold the ball in an advanced midfield position and let the midfield overlap, much like he was doing with Gerard Lampard and Lennon on Wed. Your goals come from midfield in this situation.

How can people defend playing 442, its an old out dated formation, it doesnt work in the premeier league, or the champions league.
The teams that 'make it work; are not playing two strikers, one always drops back to be an attacking midfielder, keane for tottenham, was ronaldo for man u, gerrard for liverpool.
chelsea play with two forwards but anelka plays on the wing.
Everton play cahil as attackin mid as well. The modern way is to have 5 mids, two defensive and 3 attacking, our forwards, gabby. hesky, carew, cant play as an attacking cm, so we cant play 442.
If we play 442 on sunday we will lose, because blues are better than the only teams we have beat playing 442 this year.
If we play 451 we will win, and we will win well.


arew and Heskey can drop deep, and why don't we play one of our attacking CM's like Delph or Sidwell?

French Connection,

I agree, 4-4-2 worked for England as Gerard was mor of a tucked in wide player like you have in a diamond and Lennon was an out and out winger. We need Milner to tuck in more and play more central and Beye to overlap providing our solidity down the right. Then leave the wingplay up to Young.

Kohoutek, imo if we play 4-5-1 i'd go with Gabby or Heskey. Gabby with our current midfield of Petrov, Nrc, Sidwell, Young and Milner. If however if we had Gabby and Ash on the wings and Milner or Delph in the centre in place of sidwell i'd play Heskey as we'd have enough pace to overlap.

JC has to play in a 4-4-2 imo, doesn't run the channels as well as Gabby and can't hold it as well as Heskey. Unfortunately he appears to be the most potentially prolific of the three. This may be why MoN is so keen to get a 4-4-2 working right, so he can play his most prolific striker.
Comment 89, made on September 11, 2009 at 6.17 pm

Super Villain said:

0
...
All that REALLY matters in this game is the win, if it's 10-0 great but if it's 1-0 it doesn't matter cuz we'd have beat the
dirty blue SCUM smilies/wink.gifsmilies/wink.gifsmilies/wink.gifsmilies/wink.gifsmilies/wink.gif

For me it's gonna be a close game but I think we'll nick it by a late Milner winner.

UTV
Comment 90, made on September 11, 2009 at 6.17 pm

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
by playing a 442 with an attacking mid holding you are playing 451 which is what i am saying, thats why it works for some teams. If we had a player to do that role then fine, but sidwell and delph arnt good enough, delph will maybe come good but sidwell will never make the grade there.
Heskey and carew arnt mobile to do that job, look at the other players that do it well, tevez, keane, ronaldo, messi, kaka, cahil, gerrard, they are all very mobile and good on the ball, they pick passes for the other forward. Hesky and carew arnt those players.
i think there is a place for hesky in our squad, and deffinatly carew. They need to be used smarter, thouugh, brought on at the right times,
I dont think hesky can play as a lone striker, look at his pass completion he loses the ball way to much, i dont think he holds the ball up that well either. I also think JC could do it with some adjustments to his game, but maybe its a little late in his career to do that, but if he could work the front man role more like drogba does he could be devastating.
I stand by what i say 442 is an old outdated formation that we cant play. It only works in an adaption as JPA says, a winger tucking in, forwards dropping back, of course it doesnt hurt having barry, lampard and gerrard as 3 of your 4, those three are easily in the top 10 passers of the ball in the league, you would be hard pressed to think of 3 others in their class in the prem league.
451 all the way, let gabby lead the line, support from milner, ash and delph or sidwel and we will batter the clowns,
If i new we would be playing this side
the brad
beye dunne cuellar shorey
reo petrov
milner delph young
gabby
I would bet every penny i had on us beating them on sunday
Comment 91, made on September 11, 2009 at 6.46 pm

ronrabbit said:

ronrabbit
...
On another note reckon there will be any trouble at the ground, ive been up the blues last few times, cant make it this time. Its always been fine for me but my uncle tells me of the old days when there was trouble. I ask cause of what happened with Milwall, west ham, couldnt help thinking what a bunch of wan*ers, and hope theres no problems. I dont think there will be but well they gotta be a bit wrong in the head, they support the blues.
Comment 92, made on September 11, 2009 at 6.51 pm

AVFCjake said:

AVFCjake
...
we should be batter them. I think about 4-0!!!!

Young 32mins
Young 57mins
Carew 60mins
Milner 78mins Then the blues fans go crying home
smilies/grin.gif
Comment 93, made on September 11, 2009 at 7.06 pm

b30 villain said:

b30 villain
...
i heard a rumour theres going to be some trouble after with some asian demonstration. probably something to do with last week in town. i hope not it ruins the occasion(well for some anyhow)
Comment 94, made on September 11, 2009 at 7.16 pm

THE AV VILLAN said:

THE AV VILLAN
...
I'm gonna go with the 12th minute. Young direct free kick!!!

UTV!!!
Comment 95, made on September 11, 2009 at 7.48 pm

Mostyn G said:

0
...
I believe MON is building a team akin to that of Capello's England. You only have to look at his strategy of buying best of English. The pairing of Heskey and Rooney is sublime. If Gabby could provide something similar to Rooney we'll be quids in. No doubt Damian will tell me that Rooney's an attacking midfielder - Call it what you like, it's two strikers.
Comment 96, made on September 11, 2009 at 8.15 pm

afvcbob said:

0
...
The difference on Sunday will be - if we win - we will brag for a day or 2 as our incentives are elsewhere
If the shite win - we will not hear the end of it as every slimy little nuckle dragging blue nose will come from there dark infinity to remind us for an eternity - so lets get at them Villa and put them in there place, or were never hear the end of it

UTV SOTH
Comment 97, made on September 11, 2009 at 8.18 pm

Damian said:

Damian
...
Mostyn G
I can´t believe you are not leaving this. You´ve gone from one position to another and now you are going into another.

First you start on Gabby and state he isn´t good enough to play as a lone striker when the stats say you are wrong: we win more when playing with just Gabby up front. The funny thing was use used Torres and your opinion that he has failed at Liverpool to back it up.

Then you think it ´wishful thinking´ that we play a passing game when playing 451 then when you look at the facts of the three games we have played this season we have passed a lot more playing 451 and not made as many long balls.

Now, you are starting to play on what position a player prefers against what position he is playing the pitch. Do you think then that Liverpool play 451, because Gerrard is a midfielder or that Spurs play 442 because Keane is a striker?

Basically, formation is important but you cant get away from the fact that as a team, not an individual, Aston Villa get better results when playing 451 and with Gabby up front by himself.

You cant get away from those facts and you want to pair him with Carew or Heskey and basically revert to the formation that saw us lose out on a top four place last season because you think he will play better.

Well, it isn´t about one player, it is about the team and it is about winning football matches.
Comment 98, made on September 11, 2009 at 8.50 pm

Pancho Villan said:

Pancho Villan
...
Mostyn G said:
...
I believe MON is building a team akin to that of Capello's England. You only have to look at his strategy of buying best of English. The pairing of Heskey and Rooney is sublime. If Gabby could provide something similar to Rooney we'll be quids in.


Very funny stuff.

You are right though. If Gabby was Rooney, Sidders was Frank Lampard, and Reo Coker was Steven Gerrard, we'd be on our way to playing like England. smilies/grin.gif

remarkable
Comment 99, made on September 11, 2009 at 9.33 pm

THE AV VILLAN said:

THE AV VILLAN
...
Damian and Mostyn is there not a forum for your snogging??smilies/grin.gifsmilies/grin.gif
Comment 100, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.05 pm

andy5759 said:

andy5759
...
THE AV VILLAN; ronrabbit would have something to say about that!!

Damian, I've got a cunning plan: can you set up a firewall/edit thingy that converts numerals below 6 into asterisks? that would liven up discussion here no end.

Villa really should win this at a canter, but factor in the derby wotsit and it could be much more difficult. A win, but wouldn't be surprised at a score draw. If we lose I would be gutted.

UTV - SOTC
Comment 101, made on September 11, 2009 at 10.47 pm

Falmouth Villan said:

0
...
I dont care what formation we play this weekend its all about the result, as Monday will be my 50th brthday and my 40th anniversary of first watching the Villa all i want is a win!
UTV.
Comment 102, made on September 12, 2009 at 12.09 am

limerick villain said:

limerick villain
...
Evening all!
Comment 103, made on September 12, 2009 at 12.14 am

Badger said:

Badger
...
Hey up Limerick.

I don't have anything to add, which is unlike me smilies/cheesy.gif

Stuff the formations, I don't care.
MON has it exactly right, imo.
It's about players and at the end of the day, it's 11 V 11.

If you have the nous and you're good enough, you'll sort it, as a player.
And if you don't see it, the manager will.

Play the right players for the job, simple as.

In this case we sort the midfield first.

So to me this means no Delph, just pure grit.
NRC, Petrov and Sidwell.

Back 4 is Shorey/Warnock, Cuellar, Dunne and Beye.

So it's Gabby up front.

Sidwell comes off if we're in trouble and Carew goes up front.

If we're pissing it (and i can't see that) Delph comes on for Sidwell.

In short, a battling team to at least match the rubbish they have. No way MON will have it any other way, imo.

Pure, absolute common sense, imo.

Starting to get a bit nervy now, we simply have to beat the scum.
Comment 104, made on September 12, 2009 at 12.46 am

Badger said:

Badger
...
Forgot to say, no way Clarke stays in, it's too much and we have more experienced options.
I hope he gets some time this season though smilies/smiley.gif
Comment 105, made on September 12, 2009 at 12.53 am

Badger said:

Badger
...
I don't have anything to add, which is unlike me


OK, so I changed my mind smilies/cheesy.gif
Comment 106, made on September 12, 2009 at 12.58 am

McParland said:

0
...
If the villa are up for it as much as blues will be, then a 0..2 win for villa is on the cards.
Comment 107, made on September 12, 2009 at 1.33 am

FatKevs said:

0
...
I would bring ash off the bench for this one. They will just kick lumps out of him from the start, we should play the Mule in his position (if fit) just to mix it up a bit first Gabby has bulked up a bit & fancys himself so lets see
Comment 108, made on September 12, 2009 at 9.55 am

FatKevs said:

0
...
Oh i forgot to agree with the pundits & manager so i can claim to have a higher understanding of the game.
Comment 109, made on September 12, 2009 at 9.58 am

villa moon said:

0
...
Just wondering if anybody knows of any good streams for tomorrows big game as Im working in Italy this weekend and cant make it to the match. I was hoping to watch it on Sky player but it doesn't work outside of the U.K.

I used nathans site during the peace cup and also justin.tv before which were reliable. Any help much appreciated, text commentary is just not the same smilies/smiley.gifsmilies/smiley.gif
Comment 110, made on September 12, 2009 at 10.58 am

churchill said:

churchill
...
I don't have anything to add, which is unlike me


Badger

I've alerted the media. It's in stop-press, B'ham Mail

Comment 111, made on September 12, 2009 at 11.45 am

Altan said:

Altan
...
Villa moon

It's bound to be on Justin tv or Iraq Goals ....Enjoy !

UTV
Comment 112, made on September 12, 2009 at 11.46 am

The French Connection said:

The French Connection
...
Villa Moon

http://www.myp2p.eu/competition.php?competitionid=&part=sports&discipline=football

take your pick
Comment 113, made on September 12, 2009 at 11.48 am

VillaNick said:

0
...
I've got nothing against Heskey, but I have yet to meet anyone, outside football, that rates him.

He is 3rd choice behind Aggy and Carew and I just hope and pray O'Neill doesn't p**s us all off buy going 4-4-2.

We play too wide to only have 2 in the middle so 1 up front all the way!

Shorey: I would play as he has only made 1 mistake so far this season (doggy sideways header) otherwise he's been good. Warnock however is more a MON type of player.

I just think giving 2 or 3 players a debut against Blouse could be a risk that we should take unnecessarily. UTV
Comment 114, made on September 12, 2009 at 11.52 am

churchill said:

churchill
...
Back 4 is Shorey/Warnock, Cuellar, Dunne and Beye.


I think O'Neill will play Collins at RB. So:

Collins - Dunne - Cuéllar - Warnock/Shorey.

I think fatman's idea to bring on Ash of the bench could work. But O'Neill won't do it.

Comment 115, made on September 12, 2009 at 12.01 pm

McParland said:

0
...
Carloss is playing great ,so are done collins and warnock considering its their first run out together can only get better as they gel.Just need to take your chances villa you could have already been 2 goals up. Heres hoping you secure the win in the second half its there for the taking.
Comment 116, made on September 13, 2009 at 2.10 pm

McParland said:

0
...
I deffinately think Howard Webb is Lee Carsly in disguise either that or he supports blues.Come on you villans you are playing against 12 it would seem.
Comment 117, made on September 13, 2009 at 2.29 pm

McParland said:

0
...
Well done lads and especialy you gabby a clinical finish to win it for us.
Comment 118, made on September 13, 2009 at 2.58 pm

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