Written by Doc Bowles Friday, 18 December 2009 10:51
Having dipped my blogger's finger in the supernatural a few days ago (and thanks to Louise Taylor of The Guardian for having read those words so avidly), I thought I would return to the black-and-white world of natural sciences today.
P = MV. Of course it does, but then you knew that all along. And therefore I won't bore you with the dull pedantics of it, but it's the Law of Momentum.
Now, the boring scientists amongst you would have us believe that momentum is all about the relationship between mass and velocity. Those scientists, presumably, were the same ones advising Martin O'Neill when he went all out to get very big, very fast men "down the channels".
But, as Villa are beginning to prove right now, those dowdy, bearded and bespectacled old professors have it all wrong.
Because momentum is neither about mass nor velocity - it's about belief. And this latest incarnation of Martin O'Neill's Aston Villa team has that belief coursing through its veins.
Our back four doesn't believe it can be breached. Stan Petrov genuinely believes he's the new Owen Hargreaves. Ashley Young, James Milner and Stewart Downing believe they can move like ice hockey players around the midfield so that spectators and opponents alike have no idea where the puck, sorry the ball is. And I rather fancy that Gabby believes he's on that plane to Johannesburg.
Belief is a strange thing. Its cursory and capricious nature accounts for incredible triumphs - perhaps the greatest examples being the one-in-a-million comebacks of first Manchester United and then Liverpool to win the European Cup in 1999 and 2005.
But it also tricks fools into disaster. I can't help feeling that Rafa Benitez's crazy "guarantee" that Liverpool will finish in the top four this season will go down in history as a madman's mumbo-jumbo.
Let me return, though, to this Villa side. We've agreed before that there hasn't been any great change in tactics or formation. But earth-shattering changes have been evident. The print and online media have all switched from viewing Villa as a rather predictable "also ran" to suddenly seeing us as the panther in the dark, the genuine contender, the "real deal" in terms of genuinely viable contenders for the Top 4.
And maybe we are.
But it will all be about momentum, you see. If we keep the run going and beat what will be a tough and defiant Stoke side on Saturday (and let's hope we play for 90+ minutes and not just 84, like last season), then Villa will go into those critical games against Arsenal and Liverpool with danders up.
Any slip up though, be it through complacency, tiredness or otherwise, and we may just go into those games with an itching, niggling self-doubt which either the Scousers or the Arse will sniff out pretty quickly and exploit.
I'd never have singled out the home game against Stoke as the defining game of the season. But I believe it is. Because I think that if we win it convincingly on the back of what we've already achieved in the last few games, we go to the Emirates and entertain the 'Pool at home on a roll.
And that's all it really is, isn't it, this "momentum" thing. Being "on a roll".
Let's keep it going. Oh, and by the way, "I believe".
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Damian
said:
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... it has to be done the old fashioned way - damian @ this domain name i was getting too much spam and just couldn't be arsed fixing it .. |
SuperBox
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... Doc - Great Article I think you have it spot on, and the true test is when we beat the big guns (Man U) that we then go on and win again, like Sunderland. Too many times, great performances are followed up by poor performances and the momentum is lost. One of the great challenges with the Premier League these days, is you have to turn up and play to such a high level for 38 games, any drop in performance and you'll get beaten, no matter who the opposition. Prediciting the pools these days is a nightmare! |
oldvillan
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... spot on doc,with the defence now solid the midfield has settled down into a pattern and can concentrate on breaking down the play and setting up our own forward play,milner is superb in central midfield similar to my old mate dennis mortimer,the blend of experience and youth with an abundace of passion and great fitness is now paying dividends.utv |
keith
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... doc ithought p=mv was passing = momentum,victory. congrats damian on predicting from day one hughes would not do any good at citeh. looks like spurs have been partying a little early  . do you think mon will put jc in for the stoke game to rough up their defense? |
Chris Harper
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... Love it Doc. We're going places and I wouldn't want to support anyone else. Its really exciting how we have emerged as genuine contenders for top 4. Solid, organised and ready to battle in every game. Wouldn't get that from the Robinho's of this world! Milner is superb and will do a better job than Barry in CM. I never thought I would say those words but there ya go! Villa Park will be rocking tomorrow! I just feel sorry for Stoke....well sort of  UTV! |
Mike Carter
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... Stoke will be a massive match, but I think the double-header against Arsepool will be the real defining moment. If we don't win either we'll be back to square 1 more or less. But take 4 points or more from those games and I think our confidence will be absoultely unbreakable. |
PB
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... I'm really troubled by our fans getting way ahead of themselves at the moment. Sure, we should really enjoy this time, but last season is way too recent, the trauma of that collapse way to fresh in the memory for me to be anything other than extremely cautious about our chances of finishing in, or indeed anywhere near, the top four. Remember last season? Villa won match after match after match but couldnt quite shake off Arsenal, who stayed just close enough to take full advantage when the inevitable slip up came, ironically against Stoke as it happens. Liverpool are proven, experienced, been here done that before, they will be there or thereabouts come May, be sure of it, history tells you they will be, their squad quality and depth tells you they will be. Whether we will be or not is a massively open question, and all there is to suggest we will be is 'faith' that this time around we wont screw it up as badly as we did 12 months ago. Fingers crossed |
jerry
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...doc Nice one, keith. Passion = Memorable Victory. Hughes was charvered from the off. Putting together a consistent, winning football team takes time. I've preached that gospel many times and O'Neill and Villa are the living proof. With that kind of inexhaustible funding at his disposal expectations were always going to exceed results at Man C. IT TAKES TIME. I'm not sure Sparky has enough of it to survive. |
Mike Carter
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... Chris It's close, but the Gerrard/Torres factor just can't be overcome by Villa at the moment. Granted it seems rare they play together (on the field anyway), but when they do they have that star quality of the top European sides. Without them they're tosh though, I'll give you that. A Liverpool side without Gerrard and Torres is a midtable side and nothing Villa should be scared of. If the day came where they had to sell both due to financial troubles I would laugh my cock off. |
Chris Harper
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... ha ha I would laugh mine off too. Who knows, Gerrard seems a bit pissed off at the minute. I think it may have been Pancho that said it, but his body language spoke volumes. He may want to move on this summer, especially if they don't make it into the champions league. |
Chris Harper
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... Barry reveals City anger http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,11661_5778755,00.html You can't help but smile. Barry is in a dressing room of individuals and big egos, whereas Dunne is basking in the love of the Villa changing room. Happy Days! |
Mike Carter
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... Gerrard has gone on record as saying he wants to win the PL title before he retires. But he's also said he doesn't think he'll be seen as a Liverpool legend unless he wins it with them. This season is a write-off. Come the start of 2010/11, he'll be 30. It must be becoming plainly obvious to him now that he's rapidly running out of time and Liverpool are going the wrong way. |
Mike Carter
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... That's what you get when you fill a squad with egos. It's like the Madrid galacticos just without the talent. If the team implodes it would be pretty serious. Also hilarious. |
Chris Harper
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... Ha ha you've gotta laugh. On a Man City blog, they've asked who is on their shopping list this January. 1st Comment wanted Richard Dunne in and Lescott, Bridge and Robinho out. Funny how things change. I Would love to see those fans again, the ones who were singing 'we've got Robiniho' on tranfer deadline on Sky Sports news!Mugs.  |
Steve Badger
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... Another nice post Doc. It's great to see loads of confidence on the blog. What a turn around from a few weeks ago. I feel just a buoyant as everyone else, but as some suggest, it could easily go wrong. We've done well for injuries up to now, which of course will be where the squad comes in. In this sense, we're way better off than last year. Defence is not a problem, we currently have a fantastic CB who can't get a game and Davies due back next month. Midfield, well we have players who can't get in who were first choice last year. Enough said there. Attack, we're not really any better off, but Milner seems to have taken the mantle, so I'm not worried there and scoring is not the problem anyway. When you compare that to Pool, they have none of this. Their lynchpin has gone and has nowhere near been replaced, for example. When it comes to squads, give me ours over Pool's anytime. But, as has been said, you know they are going to come good over the season. Will it be good enough? I really doubt it myself. If we don't pip them, one of the others will. The next 5 games are very interesting and could be season defining, imo. I'm going to play a game of prediction here and say we can take 11 points out of 15 (beat Stoke, Wigan and West ham, draw Arse and Pool). That's conservative, imo. That would set us up very nicely and from then on, I really don't see too much to fear. Most of the big guns have to come to VP and you have to fancy us taking points, even if we don't win, which means they are dropping them in a sense. Of course it all revolves around us beating Stoke tomorrow. And I'm confident we will. Yes, momentum is a very important thing. |
PaulMcGrathsGoneAWOL
said:
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... This is a big game, a big BIG game. Last season this fixture bascially destroyed our season, yes I know you could also atribute Moscow and Laursen into that but I firmly believe if we had finished Stoke off after being 2 up, there would have been a different feeling around VP. Yes we'd had a couple of bad results but we'd turned it on its head and were winning again. Hopefully this year we'll put the away convincingly and go into the xmas double header absolultey flying. This is a game we SHOULD win and therefore its one of the toughest to get up for mentally as we have proved in the past, plus they'll likely play with 10 men behind the ball for most of the game so we'll have to be patient and creative. We'll have to play well. Anyway, Damien, as a point of interest maybe we could have a vote as to who we would prefer in the Central Mid now. Between Milner and Barry. Obviuosly forgetting Barry screwed us over purely based on football ability and 'fitting our style'. Be interesting to know what people thought. Personally Id go with Milner as he has more creativity and he can actually score from open play. |
Chris Atkins
said:
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... I haven't added any comments in a long time, as I was getting fed up with a lot of moaning on this site pre-season with lack of signings etc and comments MON wasn't good enough at the start of the season. I was a big supporter or Doc's positive posts back then and I agree with them today. Keep it up. It's great to see us doing so well and to be in this position with a good crop of young English players is great. Not having to have resort to buying that big player yet is great. Though i am not saying that going forward we wont need to buy that player, it's just nice to have done it the MON way to date. |
Steve Badger
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... Viva, If the day came where they had to sell both due to financial troubles I would laugh my cock off. So would I. But unfortunately, I think they'll be ok and could even have some proper spending money; http://www.guardian.co.uk/foot...as-rangers |
BillyBoy7
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... I believe we will beat Stoke 2-0 tomorrow, we're flying, the support will be excellent and although they work hard, we match them but have more quality. Wegner moaning about Hull not playing mid week game, Fabregas should be out with ham-string when we go there Sunday week, so if we do beat Stoke, i feel we will get a result in London, then the momentum stays with us when 'pool arrive, another 3 points and SANTA DOES EXIST!!!! I'm just enjoying the ride, i love em!! Merry Christmas |
marcus taylor
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... performance = motivation x confidence great post doc, i think if we put on a show on saturday and score a few goals we will go into the arsenal/pool games very confident and will come out with at least 4 points. i believe we will cvome out of this christmas period in the champions league spot, with our morale intact and raring to go and finish the season in style. |
Gavin Merriman
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... Great article! I for one, believe we will keep the momentmum going and beat stoke. I just hope we can dust ourselves off and march on if we should happen to stumble at the emirates. For me the arsenal game and how we react after our next loss, will be the real test. |
marcus taylor
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... intersting article on skysports from martin tyler. - apparently agbonlahor is ranked 3 in the league for scoring the opening goal of the game. - if own goal (for/against) were not allowed, villa would be above arsenal in the premier league, as we have conceded no own goals. - in the past 5 years, weve been award the second most amount of penalties in the league, but have the lowest conversion rate in the league, at 65% - if we beat arsenal next week, we would be 1 of 2 teams to beat the "top 4" teams in a season, the other 1 was leeds in 1994. incidently we have already beaten all of the "top 4" in a season, and that was the very 1st season of the premier league. heres the link... http://www.skysports.com/opinion/story/0,25212,12038_5775499,00.html |
Andi
said:
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... hahaha signing again singing would be better although people are welcome to sign stuff if they want |
Doc
said:
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... StickyAV, But what was the louise taylor comment about. I'm intrigued. A few days back I wrote a piece about the fluidity and movement of our midfield since the return to fitness of Stewart Downing. A few paragraphs from Louise Taylor's (excellent) match report from the Stadium of Light hint that we are a source for some of the Nationals. Here's the link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/foot...ston-villa And if you don't fancy reading the whole thing, here's an extract: Still as pacy and penetrative on the counter-attack as ever, Villa are adding a few subtle touches with increasing positional interchanging adding fluidity to their once direct, slightly one-dimensional, gameplans. I must say I agree. But then I would! |
keith
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... we will finish top 4 and there is a good reason for this, positive mental attitude.look for the reasons why we should win every game if we dont its just a blip, remember how pool would win every home game before a ball was kicked because of a sign in the players tunnel " this is anfield ", early mind games. the fsw has got to some of you with his "i guarantee we will be in the top 4 " because you are saying they will go on a run at some time, NO THEY WONT, they are shite if either gerrard or tores is out. i like our martins approach to mind games, let them think they should beat us because they are wonderful and leave them wondering where it went wrong. keep the faith champions league next year |
heskeyshead
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... can someone help me? i want to go to villa vs stoke tommorow with my girlfriend but the tickets are only avaliable to people with a booking history. are they going to go on general sale? |
frem
said:
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... pb are squad is better than liverpools. torres is better than are strikers but apart from that who is better for liverpool than we have. milner or gerrard ? i would have milner anyday over gerrard now. we have four good strikers liverpool only have one. world class but when torres gets injured who replaces him. Are defence is much better than liverpools. dunne or carragar ? dunne for me. liverpools wingers are awful, infact exept from babel who never plays who do they have ? we have downing, young and milner if needed. so the point is overall are squad is stronger than liverpools and thinking about it arsenals aswell. i could go on about petrov and mascarano, l.young and johnson, warnock and insua but its clear who is better. johnson cant tackle were l. young is solid and warnock, well what do i say. |
Stan Balaban
said:
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... MJT - Did you see you see in that Sky article our stats on penalties? We have been awarded the most penalties in the league yet have the worst conversion ratio. Who is our pen taker now? I have a feeling Downing will become the regular taker. http://www.skysports.com/opini...99,00.html |
Keith
said:
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... Lots of positivity here today. Can I remind everyone that if we lose or draw tomorrow that we are a crap side that will do well to avoid relegation and MON should be sacked instantly....... |
frem
said:
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... keefvilla - its true what you say. villa will loose some more games this season so when we do dont go all negative guys. we will loose some games but stick with oneill and and the players. |
Keith
said:
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... heskeyshead You can buy tickets from VP ticket office tomorrow. Try phoning them and explain first time you have attended a game or if you know a season ticket holder they can reserve tickets for you. |
John Samuels
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... Great Post. The confidence on the blog today stems, not necessarily from the fact we are winning games, but from the WAY we are currently winning games. We look as dangerous and inventive going forward as we did during our excellent run last season without the defensive frailties we often showed at times. The team is playing as exactly that, a TEAM. We defend as a team, we attack as a team and when you have ten men running their legs off and taking full accountability then you have a chance even against the very best of oppostion. Man City are not a team and at this level you cannot afford passengers. I am confident about the Stoke game because we will fight to the end and give our all. Even if the unforseen happens and we lose or draw then I'm confident that at the very least we'll put in a good performance. Stoke will have to play out of their skin to get a ersult and that is the difference between now and the Wigan game at the start of the season. We consistently turn up at themoment and play some really good football. I pray it may continue UTV! |
Adrian Kilgallon
said:
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... If we play the same team we put out againest Sunderland then we should have no trouble beating Stoke. Just go at them from the start in a controlled manner (ie no lauching of needless long balls like we did for the first 15mins againest Sunderland) and just wear them down by swicthing play from right to left and vise versa. 4 nil. Heskey to get all 4. Would Chiefy still get paid out for a hat trick if he got 4? |
Jeff Richardson
said:
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...I'm really troubled by our fans getting way ahead of themselves at the moment. Sure, we should really enjoy this time, but last season is way too recent, the trauma of that collapse way to fresh in the memory for me to be anything other than extremely cautious about our chances of finishing in, or indeed anywhere near, the top four. Remember last season? Last year Villa wasn't as deep as they are this year. Plus they are not playing in those European games either. Depth + fresh legs = no collapse! Top 4 here we come! Up the Villa! |
beh
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... Good post Doc. Your right about belief, it`s the x-factor in football. We are lucky to have a manager who is renowned for instilling this into his players. Thankfully, it`s a grounded belief, meaning we can bounce back when things go tits up. Imagine having mon in the dressing room ( don`t dwell on that thought )and backing from the terraces at home like we have away, these young players could achieve anything. They`d become pre-programmed winners. So when momentum is lost, which will happen, dis-belief from the terraces begets dis-belief in the players. Let`s not shoot ourselves in the foot if we stub our toe. Self-help rather than self-destruction. In the meantime let`s enjoy the ride and watch the birth pangs of another great Villa side and see them for what they are. |
Greg
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... nice post i think ur right we need to beat stoke well to keep this bandwagon going, id defo take a scraped 1-0er, but if we win will it will scare the arsenal young guns. My only doubt is after looking at the fixture list we have 2 extra games sandwiched in for the cup semi's, plus liverpool are coming just 2 days after we have travelled to london. its gona be tough but if we come out of it with points anything is possible. Maybe automatic champs qualification and a cup??? utv!! |
Keith
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... I wont be very disappointed if Warnock misses tomorrows game. Not that he hasn't been excellent since he signed, but I think having Cuellar, Collins and Dunne at the back will help with the long throws and set pieces that Stoke are good at. Still fancy a comfortable 2-0 victory anyway. |
Andy Scarborough
said:
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... Everyone on here seems to be buzzing right now. There's so much positivity that you'd think we were an Amway motivational blog! Does anyone want some detergent or cooking pots? I want to change my name to Aston Villa. |
John Clark
said:
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... Haven't been able to post much, work has been insane. But good to see the usual cast have been keeping up. Momentum is everything, confidence is everything. Of course it could all go pear-shaped...But the team are starting to realize the potential we all hoped to see from MON, and we may as well enjoy the run. Top 4 is achievable. Whether or not we will get it, who knows. So much can happen. But this is a strong, relatively young team, and if we don't reach the promised land this year, I still have belief that we will. "Five-year plan" indeed. There is a method to MON's "madness". |
Stan Balaban
said:
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...Your right about belief, it`s the x-factor in football. We are lucky to have a manager who is renowned for Well said Beh! I'll be on a flight from from Dubai whilst the match is on but hope everyone else get VP rocking and makes some noise!! Stoke have a good away support so they need to be drowned out from the start! Be the 12th man, UTV!!! |
paul
said:
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... Yeah good on ya! We've all thought "what if" but we mustn't forget that 5th would actually be a good season and improvement on the last one. (Just dont tell the team we'd be happy with that!) I had a couple of quid on the Villa to win the league last season when we was close up around christmas, at 90/1. We're currently available at best priced 80/1 I think so if you truly believe we have a squeak then have a few quid. You've got to think that Man Utd and Chelsea will both pull away at some point though, Arsenal are good enough for the top 4 and that Liverpool are much better than there current form suggests. For me we have to place close attention to our battle with Spurs/Man City, finishing ahead of these is the main aim. Getting more points that any of the established top 4 would be a real plus and something that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons! |
heskeyshead
said:
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... guys you may have heard this but if you havent please check it out hour long interview with MON in november 09 http://www.brmb.co.uk/Article.asp?id=1451448 i wouldnt want any other manager. hes fantastic. |
Chris Platt
said:
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... I must take everyones temperature. You must all be ill. I have not read any negative comment during the last week.......Ah yes, you all have the swine flu Hope it last until May |
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