We had a good result in Italy and beating West Ham last time out in the League made a lot of us feel a little better about things but today will likely not be a walk in the park. Nottingham Forest are fighting relegation and playing sides in this position is never straightforward.
That they are at home and Vitor Pereira looks like he's getting a tune out of them now is reason to be cautious. And that's quite good for us, because under Unai Emery we're not a side that takes too many risks.
I imagine we will approach this game much in the same way we approach every game. There will be a plan. The players will know what that is and the objective today is to get three points.
And if the match ends 1-0 and we are last on Match of the Day, I don't really care as long as we have the three points because if that happens, we are one step closer and will be third place and it's all about steps and matches at the moment.
I know I've written a few times this season that there is no business end, it's all about business, but this is very much the business end to the season. These are the matches where we have to win and it doesn't matter how we do it. Success breeds success and it's all about Champions League football for next season now.
It's the nature of the game these days. How we get it doesn't matter but both routes for us are equally as important, so we can't look for excuses if we are not picking up three points against sides we really could be picking up three points against.
So, in summary. We need three points today but it's not going to be straightforward and it's possible we don't see as many goals as we did against Bologna in the week. But we're all sensible Aston Villa fans and as long as those three points are chalked up later, we're all going to be happy.
And that written, it's time for a Bacon sandwich and a cup of coffee.
Match facts from the BBC
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Nottingham Forest have won their last two home league games against Aston Villa, last winning three in a row against them between 1977 and 1979.
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Aston Villa are looking to complete the league double over Nottingham Forest for the first time since 2017-18, and for the first time in the Premier League since 1992-93.
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Aston Villa have lost three of their 17 Premier League games against Nottingham Forest (W9 D5). Among sides they’ve faced 15+ times in the competition, only against Coventry (16.7%) do they have a lower loss rate than against Forest (17.6%).
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Nottingham Forest are winless in seven home league games (D4 L3), failing to score in their last three; the Tricky Trees last went longer without a home league goal in February 2018 in the Championship (5 games), and have only once done so in the top-flight (4 in April 1911).
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Aston Villa have lost both of their last two away games in the Premier League, last losing more in a row between November and December 2024 (5), a run which included a 2-1 loss to Nottingham Forest.
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Nottingham Forest have scored 13 goals from 228 shots at the City Ground in the Premier League this season, a conversion rate of 5.7%. It’s the lowest home conversion rate by any side in a Premier League campaign since Fulham in 2020-21 (3.9%).
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Aston Villa have scored 14 Premier League goals from outside the box this season, more than any other side, while only in 2007-08 (16) have they netted more in the competition. Conversely, only Tottenham Hotspur have conceded more times from outside the box in the division this season (11) than Nottingham Forest (9).
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In 2026, only Bruno Fernandes (12), João Pedro (10), and Igor Thiago (8) have more Premier League goal involvements than Morgan Gibbs-White (7 – 6 goals, 1 assist). However, just one of Gibbs-White’s goal involvements in the league this calendar year have come at the City Ground, scoring against Crystal Palace in February.
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Only Igor Thiago (1,608) has applied more high-intensity pressures in the Premier League this season than Nottingham Forest’s Elliot Anderson (1,527). Indeed, 74.1% of Anderson’s pressures this season have been high-intensity, the second highest rate of any player to record 1,500+ pressures, behind only Diego Gómez (77.3%).
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Aston Villa have won 14 of their 23 Premier League games in which John McGinn has started this season (61%), the highest ratio of any player to start 20+ league games for the club this season. When he hasn’t started, however, their win rate drops to 25% (2/8) in 2025-26.