Newcastle is always a tough place to go and I read a comment yesterday that the pitch slopes from one goal to another. Is that true? I think it matters, but it doesn't matter for this post.
You see, this is a post about what needs to happen today and there is an element that goes in our favour today and that's that Newcastle played Champions League this week and it would have taken something out of them. But Fenerbahçe took something out of us too.
I was nervous for the Fenerbahçe match just because I thought we were starting to look a little tired in the matches ahead of the game but it turned out we approached the game a little differently and we managed to keep our composure. It wasn't the most exciting of matches, but we got the result that enables us to take it a little easy next week.
But it does mean we have to go again today and because the approach will be different at Newcastle, I'm nervous again. I'm nervous, because and I've written this before, we have entered the business end of the season a lot earlier this season and that's because of where we are competing.
And there needs another post on this, about where we are and why things are different now and I'll start that, but it's why every match now is as important as the one we just had and the one coming up. That we have an opportunity to rest a player or three or approach the Red Bull Salzburg match a little differently is a bonus we should be very grateful for.
And we only get to that opportunity because we did the work ahead of this game and that's probably because we've treated this season as if it's all business. I'll be back later, but it's a big game and three points today and I'll start to believe.
Match facts from the BBC
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Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 17 home league games against Aston Villa (W11 D6), winning the last four by an aggregate score of 13-1.
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Aston Villa have taken four points from their last two Premier League games against Newcastle (W1 D1), more than they had in their previous six (3 – W1 D0 L5).
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Newcastle United are unbeaten in their last eight home Premier League matches (W6 D2) and have started 2026 with consecutive victories at St James’ Park, beating Crystal Palace and Leeds. The last time the Magpies won their first three home Premier League games in a year was in 2012, the third game of which was against Aston Villa.
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Having scored in 10 consecutive Premier League games between MD11 and MD20 this season – scoring the joint most goals (24) and having the best conversion rate (18.9%) in that time – Aston Villa have failed to score in their last two, having 33 shots without success.
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In the last two seasons, only Man City (70) and Brentford (63) have scored more home Premier League goals than Newcastle (62), with the Magpies scoring two or more goals in each of their last eight. They last achieved that in nine consecutive home top-flight games between December and March in the 1931-32 season.
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Only Arsenal (21) have won more away Premier League points this season than Aston Villa (18), despite the Villans having a minus goal difference on the road (15 scored, 16 conceded). Their 1.64 points per game on the road in 2025-26 is their best in any campaign since 2009-10 (1.68).
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Newcastle have only lost two of their last nine Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the top three (W4 D3), while manager Eddie Howe has 12 overall victories against sides in the top three (4 with Bournemouth, 8 with Newcastle). The only English manager with more is Sam Allardyce (13).
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Newcastle’s Eddie Howe has won 135 Premier League matches and needs one victory to level with Roy Hodgson on 136, putting him joint third for wins by English managers. Only Harry Redknapp (236) and Sam Allardyce (178) have more.
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In his final two Premier League games before Christmas, Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers scored a brace in both games against West Ham and Man Utd. Since Christmas, however, he’s had the most shots without scoring of any player (15).
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Bruno Guimarães has been involved in nine Premier League goals at St James’ Park this season (7 goals, 2 assists), the most of any Newcastle player. The last Magpies central midfielder involved in more in a season was Georginio Wijnaldum in 2015-16 (11 goals, 2 assists).