The bookmakers might thing today is a straightforward win for Aston Villa, but I'm on the side that thinks that today is going to be a tough match. But I'm also confident that if we play like we can, we should have enough.
And I'm not saying this season is different, although I think I am in a way, it's that we are better. It took a little time to get it going and the arrival of a couple of players in January, but we are essentially a more consistent side. We should win today, but it requires the consistency to be there, the players to be there and Southampton to be there, in the sense of how they have been most of this season.
If everything plays out like it should, we should win and that's why the bookmakers have us as favourites and we are better this season, so we should. So why am I nervous?
It's the high of Paris and now it's Southampton. This is the thing we have to get better at. We need to take these matches in our stride and deliver. And I don't have the numbers in front of me, I don't think we've been great at this this season or last season. Or certainly, we should or could have been better.
But we are better this season and we are more consistent. But this is the business end of the season and three points today would be massive. I'll be back later, I'm a little fragile this morning.
Match facts from the BBC
Head-to-head
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Southampton are looking to avoid losing five games in a row to Aston Villa for the first time in their history.
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Villa have won their last four league games against Southampton by an aggregate score of 7-0.
Southampton
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Southampton are the first team in Premier League history to be relegated with as many as seven games of the season remaining.
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Saints are the third team to lose as many as 25 of their first 31 games of a top-flight campaign, after Sunderland in 2005-06 and Sheffield United in 2020-21 (both also 25).
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They have seven games remaining to avoid having the lowest-ever points tally in a Premier League season. They have 10 points; the 2007-08 Derby side had 11.
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Saints are the lowest scorers in the top four divisions of English football with just 23 goals.
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Southampton picked up only four points in Ivan Juric's 14 top-flight games in charge, giving him the lowest points-per-game average (0.29) of any Premier League manager to take charge of at least 10 matches.
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Juric's side conceded more goals than any other top-flight side while he was in charge (38).
Aston Villa
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Defeat against Paris Saint-Germain ended Aston Villa's run of seven straight victories in all competitions.
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They are aiming to win four successive top-flight matches for the first time since a run of five in a row in April 2023.
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The Villans have won just two of their nine league games that have followed a Champions League match this season (D3, L4), and half of their eight top-flight defeats this season have come following a European fixture.
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Seven of Morgan Rogers' eight league goals this season have either put Villa in the lead (four) or drawn them level (three).
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The 18 chances Rogers has created for Ollie Watkins this season is the most by a top-flight player for a team-mate.
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Since both Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio made their Premier League debuts for Aston Villa on 15 February, only Liverpool (16) have picked up more points than Villa's 14.