A wise man once wrote that form was temporary, class was permanent. It was probably a football fan. But I'm starting with this today because we can't always win, but we should strive for it. Arsenal and Liverpool have lost a total of five matches this season and we are currently at nine. Next season, we need to lose less.
None of this rocket science and it's also not just about not losing, we need to win more. That said, Arsenal have drawn four more than us and Liverpool only two less. But this is also why in a post or two back I wrote that this season isn't over and teams above us will drop points. And now we all have four matches left.
It's not a level playing field and if everyone above us lost at the weekend and we won, we'd still be where we are today, unless Chelsea or Nottingham Forest got proper spanked and that's not going to happen. But if that happened, the prospect of top five is still more than on.
What it really comes down to though is us beating Fulham. If we don't pick up three points in the early game on Saturday, I fear our chances of top five will hang very much in the balance. I'm not saying it wouldn't be possible, but it would mean having to win the final three and hope for something I think a little too much to hope for.
That said, three points tomorrow and I think our chances are much better, even though we'd still be seventh. You see, we're now back to football once a week and I think that is good for us at this stage of the season. And our last two are against Spurs and Manchester United, both looking like they are going to be competing for Champions League football right in the middle of that.
But everything comes down to tomorrow. Win and we have an opportunity. Drop points and I think we can all start to think about the beach. All that written, if we and everyone above us loses, I'll be here next week probably as optimistic, but I fear that will be more blind optimism than anything else.
We need to win the next two and if we do, we'll be within touching distance. And for those interested, the important other matches this weekend:
- Manchester City v Wolves (tonight)
- Brighton v Newcastle (Sunday)
- Chelsea v Liverpool (Sunday)
- Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest (Monday)
Match facts from the BBC
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Aston Villa have won six of their last seven Premier League games against Fulham (including the last four in a row), with the exception being a 3-0 away defeat in October 2022.
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Fulham have won just one of their last 20 away league games against Aston Villa (D7 L12), losing the last five in a row since a 2-1 win in April 2014.
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Aston Villa’s 2-1 defeat to Man City last time out ended a five-game winning run in the Premier League. They’ve only lost consecutive league games once in the last two seasons, doing so in November against Liverpool and Spurs.
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None of Fulham’s last 14 Premier League games have been drawn (W7 L7), while their last two victories have come against the league leaders (3-2 v Liverpool) and the bottom side (2-1 v Southampton).
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Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 16 Premier League home games (W9 D7), since losing to Arsenal in their opening game at Villa Park this term. It’s their second longest run in the competition, with both coming under manager Unai Emery (also 17 between March and December 2023).
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Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has won all six of his Premier League games against Fulham. There are just four examples of a manager having more games with a 100% win rate against an opponent – Pep Guardiola vs Watford (10/10), Guardiola vs Fulham (9/9), José Mourinho vs Portsmouth (7/7) and Roberto Mancini vs Wigan (7/7).
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John McGinn could make his 200th Premier League appearance in this match. He would be the 10th player to reach this milestone for Aston Villa, and the 16th Scotsman to do so in the competition.
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Though Andreas Pereira has created more chances from set play than any other player in the Premier League this season (37), no team have scored fewer set piece goals (excluding penalties) than Fulham this season (5).
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Of all players to play at least 400 minutes in the Premier League this season, only Mohamed Salah (one every 66 minutes) is averaging a goal or assist more frequently than Fulham’s Ryan Sessegnon (69 – 4 goals and 2 assists in 414 minutes).
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13 of Ollie Watkins’ 15 Premier League goals this season have either put Aston Villa ahead (7) or drawn them level (6) in the match, the highest percentage of any player to score more than 10 this term (87%).